FORESIGHT UKRAINE: 4 SCENARIOS FOR UKRAINE

Source: Yearbook by l’Observatoire, Analytical Center at the Franco-Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (First published in 2018)

1. Status Quo” (a Weak Ukraine — Confrontation)

WHAT ACCEPTANCE OF A CUSTOMS UNION WOULD MEAN FOR THE UK

The economic arguments against staying in the EU Customs Union are important, but the political and constitutional consequences are even more profound. Staying inside the EU Customs Union after ceasing to be a Member State would necessarily entail a severe and continuing curtailment of the UK’s powers to govern itself as an independent state and would subject it to the continuing effective jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice (ECJ). In particular:

UKRAINE’S RAMPANT CORRUPTION

Source: Transparency International

In the last few months, several unsavory developments involving top government officials, continued attacks on activists and civil society and increased distrust between citizens and government, present a worrying picture of rampant corruption in Ukraine.

BREXIT NEXT STEPS

29 March: MPs rejected Withdrawal Agreement. Brexit date stays as 12 April

1st April: Second day of indicative votes. Clear results? If Theresa May accepts Plan, government will try to implement decision. Possible further extension.

If Theresa May does not accept Plan

12 April

  1. No deal Brexit
  2. Cancel Brexit

Date: (?) Further Extension. Uk will take part in European election 

ITALY- RUSSIA RELATIONS

Italy is one of the countries with which Russia has a major trade turnover despite EU sanctions against Moscow. Italian businesses are actively investing in Russia. Italian companies have always had faith in the Russian market and the trade ties between the two states are improving.

Italy and Russia have very close cultural and historical ties. Italy is very interested in its relationship with Russia in the geopolitical arena. Italy hopes that it can play a decisive role in restoring ties between Russia and the EU.

MAJOR CHALLENGE IN BRAZIL-EU RELATIONS

Author: Elena Lazarou, Assistant Professor Getulio Vargas Foundation

EU COPYRIGHT REFORM

Today, the European Parliament voted in favour of the new Copyright Directive designed to bring tangible benefits to citizens, all creative sectors, the press, researchers, educators, and cultural heritage institutions. The new Directive brings the copyright rules up to date with the way users access content online. For example, copyright exceptions exist in the areas of education, research and preservation of cultural heritage, but the digital uses were not anticipated by the current rules, which dated back to 2001. Therefore, this limited the possibilities for users (e.g.

ABOUT THE FORUM FOR THE PROGRESS OF SOUTH AMERICA (PROSUR)

South American countries have launched the Forum for the Progress of South America (PROSUR), a new regional bloc which seeks the integration and strengthening of the region. Presidents and representatives from Chile, Colombia, Brazil, Peru, Ecuador, Argentina, Paraguay and Guyana signed a joint declaration to create “a regional space of coordination and cooperation, without exclusion of ideologies” at a meeting in Santiago.

PROJECTIONS FOR THE 23-26 MAY EP ELECTIONS

Losses are projected for the People’s Party and for Socialists and Democrats, while the Liberal Alliance, the Greens and the Left hold their ground.

Excellent performances for the sovereign and Eurosceptic political groups, above all the Hungarian Fidesz, the Italian League and the French Rassemblement National.

A more fragmented European Parliament without pre-established majorities and with an increased sovereign and Eurosceptic presence, albeit still a minority one, is the picture of the EU Assembly that emerges from projections of the May vote

THE IMPORTANCE OF THE BLACK SEA FOR RUSSIA

The unique geography of the Black Sea region confers several geopolitical advantages to Russia. The Black Sea holds a special significance for Russia  for several reasons. Firstly, it is an important crossroads and strategic intersection for the entire region. Access to the Black Sea is vital for all littoral and neighboring states, and greatly enhances the projection of power into several adjacent regions. Secondly, the region is an important transit corridor for goods and energy.

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