PROJECTIONS FOR THE 23-26 MAY EP ELECTIONS

Losses are projected for the People’s Party and for Socialists and Democrats, while the Liberal Alliance, the Greens and the Left hold their ground.

Excellent performances for the sovereign and Eurosceptic political groups, above all the Hungarian Fidesz, the Italian League and the French Rassemblement National.

A more fragmented European Parliament without pre-established majorities and with an increased sovereign and Eurosceptic presence, albeit still a minority one, is the picture of the EU Assembly that emerges from projections of the May vote

1. The European People’s Party (EPP) will remain the largest political group in the European Parliament with 181 seats out of total 705 seats in the next European Parliament;
2. The Socialists and Democrats (S&D) will have 135 seats.
3. ALDE will have 75 seats .
4. The Europe of Nations and Freedom group (ENF) will have 59 seats thanks mainly to the growth of the Italian League.
5. The ECR (European Conservatives and Reformists) will have 46 seats.
6. The GUE/NGL will have 47 seats  
7. The Greens+EFA will have 49 seats .
8. The Eurosceptic EFDD (Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy) will have 39 seats.
9. Ten seats will go to non-affiliated MEPS
10. 22 seats will go to new political formations not currently in the groups already present in Strasbourg.

The slimming course of the traditional parties will raise questions about future majorities in the European Parliament, starting with the majority that will have to elect the future President of the EU Commission. A convergence between the EPP, the Socialists and Democrats and the Liberals might be anticipated, perhaps with the support of the Greens, or the pro-European forces. A majority composed of the EPP, Conservatives and Eurosceptic groups is less probable but cannot be dismissed a priori.

National Projections

The 7 countries herebelow account for 424 seats or 60% of the total number of seats out of 705

Germany (96 seats)

1. The CDU/CSU party: 33.0%=34 seats
2. Grüne: 19.0% = 20 seats
3. SPD: 18% = 18 seats
4. AfD: 10% = 10 seats

France (79 seats)

1. LREM+ MODEM: 23%= 18 seats
2. RS: 22%= 17 seats
3. LR: 13%= 10 seats
4. EELV: 8.5%= 7 seats
5. FI: 7.0%= 5 seats
6. DLF: 6.0%= 5 seats
7. PS + PRG: 5.6%= 4 seats

Italy (76 seats)

1. Lega: 33.3%= 25 seats  
2. MSS: 24.3 %= 18 seats  
3. PD: 16.9% = 13 seats
4. Forza Italia: 9.1%= 7 seats
5. Fratelli d’Italia: 4.4%= 3 seats

Spain (59 seats)

1. PSOE: 26.8%= 16 seats
2. PP: 20.0%=12 seats
3. Ciudadanos: 17.3%=10 seats
4. Podemos in alliance with Izquierda Unida: 13.9%= 8 seats

Poland (52 seats)

1. Coal. Europejska: 37.5%= 19 seats
2. PiSList: 36.3%= 18 seats
3. Wiosna: 10.6%= 5 seats
4. Kukuiz’15: 7.3% = 4 seats

Romania (33 seats)

1. PSD: 29.9%= 10 seats
2. PNL: 24.4%= 8 seats
3. ALDE: 9.1%= 3 seats
4. USR: 9.0%= 3 seats

Netherlands (29 seats)

1. VVD: 17.5%= 5 seats
2. PVV: 13.1%= 4 seats
3. GL: 11.4%= 3 seats
4. CDA: 9.1%= 2 seats