IMAGINING TRUMP 2.0

If Trump is elected, the implications for Europe will go well beyond the issues of Ukraine and European security. The Trump administration will challenge European policymakers across a range of issues: from China to trade, climate to the Middle East. Worse, another nightmare lurks beneath the potential foreign policy shocks: an international coalition that could emerge as a framework for populists in Europe to establish special ties with Trump’s Washington. Trump’s re-election might well embolden the populist right in Europe to obstruct common EU policies and initiatives more forcefully. They may also seek US endorsement for far-right parties in national elections, including in Germany and Poland in 2025.

European policymakers understand the risks a second Trump term might pose for Europe. Various ministries across Europe have convened study groups or task forces to examine the problem and to recommend hedging strategies. They have often identified European assets that matter to the US, such as the EU single market and the European economic relationship with China. If deployed skilfully, they argue, these assets could give the EU a lot of leverage vis-à-vis the Trump administration and enable a forceful EU to assert its interests. They further almost universally agree that Europeans should “do more”, particularly in terms of defence spending and rearmament to enhance European capabilities and bargaining capacity. Alas, awareness and discussion are not the same as preparation. And there are precious few policy measures being taken specifically to prepare for Trump’s second term; nor are there inter-agency working groups in most European capitals, let alone collectively at the European level.

The explanation for the disconnect between thought and action resides in the generally fraught politics among Europeans regarding the US and intra-European disagreements over how to respond to a potential second Trump term.

Some European officials suggest in private that the EU will “survive” Trump 2.0 by pursuing the same tactics as in his first term. They intend to flatter and distract him, while working with what they hope will be ‘more rational’ members of his administration as well as Congress, state governments, and civil society actors. These officials often feel that they can best manage Trump 2.0 by emphasising their bilateral relationship with the US. For them, there is little need for additional preparation for Trump as they already know what to expect and what to do.

And of course, some European governments, particularly in Hungary and Slovakia, welcome the idea of a new Trump administration. They feel that Trump redux would make common cause with their populist governments and help them avoid the rule of law and democracy discussions that have roiled their relationship with the EU. Trump’s history of unpredictability and lack of delivery also makes his potential allies in Europe nervous. But not so nervous that they advocate for the EU to engage in any kind of common preparation or response to the possibility of him returning to power.

In the end, meaningful preparation for a US administration that might be hostile to Europe is expensive – fiscally, politically, and even psychologically. Many Europeans would prefer to hope that it will not happen or to imagine that the worst scenarios are just catastrophising.

Political unity among the EU 27 will be difficult to attain in these circumstances. But at the same time, individual European responses will simply not be sufficient. Right after Trump took office in 2017, there was something of an unseemly rush among European governments to get to the White House first and to establish an effective bilateral relationship with the president. In the process, they did little but demonstrate weakness and disunity to Trump. Theresa May, the then UK prime minister, won the competition, but her victory meant nothing in terms of the post-Brexit trade deal she had hoped for. Europeans have absorbed that lesson about Trump. But intra-European dynamics nonetheless mean that, in the event of a Trump re-election, they may well repeat that unseemly rush and convey the same message to his new administration.

To avoid that message, Europeans will likely need to form smaller coalitions of the willing that can present a unified pre-agreed message to Trump even if the EU-27 cannot. Various formats seem plausible and useful on different issues, particularly the recently resurrected Weimar Triangle that includes France, Germany, and Poland. A joint mission comprising those three leaders and perhaps the renewed European Commission president would send a powerful message of at least partial unity.

They should arrive conscious of their continued need for a US presence in Europe, but refrain from nostalgic soliloquys about the glories of the Atlantic alliance. History and sentiment will not move Trump, but hard-nosed, smart bargaining that leverages Europe’s existing assets might help. This group should also engage in some scenario planning, preparing contingency policies that, even if they cannot be implemented in advance, will at least allow Europeans to respond quickly if any actually comes to pass.

The sad fact is that think-tank speculation and hypothetical scenarios will not move Europe. Only the reality of a new Trump administration’s anti-alliance policies can do that. At that moment, Europe will be in crisis and European commentators will loudly lament that government should have prepared earlier and better for what so many had seen coming. But they will know in their hearts that Europeans will never voluntarily emerge from under the American security blanket. Someone will have to pull it off them.