UKRAINE’S POLITICAL SUICIDE

Written By : Joerg Forbrig, Transatlantic Fellow for Central and Eastern Europe at the German Marshall Fund of the United States in Berlin.

Although the Ukrainian goverment has engaged reforms in a number of areas, from public procurement to taxes, from the police to state companies and stabilized the economy and public finances, this partial progress has come at a price. It was made possible by a broadest-possible coalition of pro-European forces, which placed a minority of reformers, civic leaders and committed democrats alongside a majority of old political hands that clung to their influence and vested interests. The latter grudgingly agreed to some changes, mostly those called for as a condition for financial aid or visa liberalization by Western partners. But the former mostly hit a wall when it came to pursuing structural reforms geared toward fixing Ukraine’s deeply corrupt political economy. As a result, the country’s rotten prosecution and judiciary systems have remained untouched, as has the pervasive influence of Ukrainian oligarchs.

New anti-corruption bureaus are yet to become functional as are serious efforts to recover stolen assets. Privatizing Ukraine’s bloated and costly state companies has proven as elusive as decentralizing its public administration. This means any reform progress Ukraine has made thus far is not irreversible. Ukraine’s uneasy political coalition is coming apart at the seams. Reformers are exhausted and feeling desperate in the face of the seemingly futility of their efforts. Those stalling change have become emboldened and want to end their political hibernation. Hopes for swift improvement has been shattered and confidence in the government and its political elite, has reached all-time lows. The international pressure that once held the governing alliance together has receded: Bankruptcy is no longer imminent, Western interest in Ukraine is fading. As a consequence, political infighting has been on the rise for months.

The collapse of the current government, and a likely succession by  a less reform-oriented one would be far more disastrous. It would mark the ultimate betrayal of Ukrainian citizens by their political class. The sacrifices Ukrainians made pushing for reform, will have been in vain. Predictably, they will not remain apathetic and will mobilize in process, deepening conflict in the country and dashing hopes for peace.

If the government fails in Kiev, it will have a direct effect on political and  economic support from the West. Ukraine’s many skeptics will gain the upper hand, and its few friends will face a steep uphill struggle. Reduced assistance whether political, financial, administrative or military will eventually forfeit the modest gains Ukraine has made, and expose the country’s many vulnerabilities. Such a loss of faith in, and support for, Ukraine’s ability to change would almost certainly spill to other countries and reinforce Western views of an incorrigible post-Soviet space that is best kept at arm’s length.

Ukraine can still escape this political suicide and its predictable consequences. To do so, decision-makers in Kiev have to, for once, place their country’s interest above their own petty concerns. Time is running out.