VOTING INTENTION AVERAGES ON 7 MAY FRENCH ELECTIONS

1. On average 39.33% of Melanchon supporters claim they will abstain. 39.33% of 19.58% (score of Melanchon on the first round) is 7.66%
2. On average 30.67% of Fillon supporters claim they will abstain. 30.67% of 20.01% (score of Fillon on first round) is 6.14%
3. On average 24.33% of Hammon supporters claim they will abstain. 24.33% of 6.36% (score of Hammon on first round) is 1.55%
4. On average 31% of Dupont Aignan supporters claim they will abstain. 31% of 4.7% (score of Dupont Aignan on first round) is 1.46%

Combined this amounts to a total abstention of 16.81% compared with the overall abstention percentage of 22.67% (first round). That margin suggests there is an extra pool of voters who intend to sit this out.

Assuming Le Pen supporters are more enthusiastic, the extra block of abstainers must come primarily from those who voted for Macron but now intends to sit it out.

Determining Questions

1. Will enough weak Macron supporters turn up to vote?
2. Will the ‘ni-ni’ (neither nor) campaign have an impact that does not show in the polls?
3. Is there a pool of Le Pen supporters who simply dot not tell pollsters their intention (shy Front National voters)
4. Will the final TV debate between Macron and Le Pen have an impact?

To win, Le Pen needs a low turnout and a ni-ni impact that affects Macron more than it does her. This may be possible, and more likely than most expect.