TAKE ON THE FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

If no one can say with certainty who will win the presidential election on 7 May, one thing is for certain : the successor of François Hollande will be elected by default and without desire. Because it is not the second round that gives the reality of the winner’s political basis. If present trends remain until the election, the final round will indeed be very singular : the presence practically certain of Marine Le Pen will turn into a rejecting vote in favor of her adversary, possibly Emmanuel Macron according to recent opinion polls. If the balance of power changed over the next few weeks in favor of François Fillon, it would be the same. In short, the decisive round will be a vote for or against Marine Le Pen. If Marine Le Pen were to win, the situation would be dangerous with a country fractured into two hostile camps, may be enemies, possible public disorder and the risk of an authoritarian presidential reaction authorized by the 1958 French constitution. If Marine Le Pen is defeated, the situation will be certainly less perilous for the country but the winner will be in a weak position given a low score on the first round and a support from the opinion that is not solid enough faced with a radical opposition of the extreme right and traditional parties disintegrating.

From a democratic point of view, the explosion of the electoral base on the right and on the left raises deep concerns. The resulting puzzle-like landscape is such that no one presidential candidate has a solidly enough electoral basis to govern over the long term. How to be an indisputable chief of state when one has obtained but a quarter of the votes cast on the first round, or less than 18% of registered voters ?

Of course election makes the President legitimate, but in fact it is fragile because the subtle structure of an efficient electoral system that regulates a binary ideological confrontation is today collapsing or has collapsed. The country is currently divided into multiple currents that represent at best 20% of the electorate. The basis for all presidential candidates has thus become too weak to make the winner indisputable. This danger is all the more real that many French voters may well decide to abstain at a record level compared with preceding presidential elections.

The legality of the election in May is going to suffer from a true deficit of electoral legitimacy. The winner in May will have behind him but a small fifth of the French people registered to vote, 8 million people out of 47 million registered voters. In other words the next French president will have a reduced political capital and face a high risk of being rapidly rejected by public opinion. Under such conditions, it will be extremely difficult to govern. The Front National opposition will be relentless. The legislative majority will be either disparate or lame. The five-year term does not leave much margin to repair the least error. It requires the ability to convince and succeed rapidly. For the first time since 1958, the new President will accede to power within a blurred climate and move on a very unstable political field. His responsibility will be considerable because if he fails, France will sink definitely in the worst sense.

Final Note

The political atmosphere in France is turning sour. Polls suggest that disappointment, disgust, and anger increasingly characterize the public perception of politics. A growing number of voters believe their ideas aren’t well represented, and they distrust elected officials and political parties. In this context, one can only worry about the election’s outcome. Will the new president be able to find a majority at the legislative elections in June? If not, then with whom will they establish a coalition, and how might that coalition push a cohesive agenda? Or will they rather be forced to “cohabit” with a prime minister from a different majority? Second, and maybe more important, even with a legislative majority, it is totally possible that the victor of the election benefits only from a limited mandate by the public in support of their platform. The stakes in this election -- for the state of French democracy, for the needed reforms of its economy and its society, and for the future of the European Union deserve a more thorough debate. Time is running out.