1. ID projected to have 68 lawmakers in the next EP
  2. ECR projected to have 71 lawmakers in the next EP

But there will be horse-trading after the election, with parties switching between groups. Maybe the AfD rejoins ID? Maybe there’s a new faction created? What about Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz, which is polling at around 10 MEPs who don’t currently sit with any group?

If we add the projected totals for ID, ECR, AfD and Fidesz together, that comes to 166 MEPs out of 720.

If they (very hypothetically) decided to all work together, that far-right supergroup would be in second place, just 10 seats behind the European People’s Party

Even a divided right is a big issue for von der Leyen, who (assuming she is national leaders’ choice for Commission president) needs the support of 361 MEPs to win another term.

All those far-right MEPs could also block legislation they don’t like throughout the parliamentary term, putting huge pressure on the cordon sanitaire, which currently blocks ID from wielding any real influence in the Parliament (and partially does the same thing to ECR). Winning a second term and securing 361 votes will come down to the wire. The EPP, Socialists and Renew liberals are projected to secure 402 seats, meaning that if only 10 percent or so of MEPs from the main centrist parties rebel in an approval vote, she will be in trouble. Indeed, that could make support from the ECR vital to her.


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