THE BREXIT SAGA: A CASE STUDY OF POOR NEGOTIATIONS

The Prime Minister lost the Parliament's vote on Brexit on January 15, 2019 by 432 to 202. The leader of the opposition Labour Party, Jeremy Corbyn, has put forward a motion of no-confidence in the government that will be debated today.

1. PM May loses the confidence vote and then May -- or another leader -- has 14 days to try again to win a confidence vote. If that fails, then the next stage would most likely be a general election. The trouble is, the process of holding a general election would take longer than the 73 days left until March 29. So unless someone extends the article 50 process in the meantime, it's hard to see how the UK doesn't simply crash out without a deal.
2. PM May survives the confidence vote and then the most obvious next step is returning to Brussels and getting further assurances from the EU on the future relationship, pertaining in particular to the Irish Border "backstop". But the EU has been consistent since the withdrawal agreement negotiations ended that there would be no further concessions.

Second Referendum

A second Brexit referendum could be on the table. The SNP have said they would back a so-called People's Vote and a number of Conservative MPs have also backed one. So there could be a majority in Parliament for it but a second referendum will not happen quickly and the first stage is for there to be an Act of Parliament. That will require the backing of a majority of MPs and the Electoral Commission has said there should be at least a six-month gap to allow enough time to register campaigns and put counting officers in place. Then there is the question of what to put on the ballot paper. If there are three questions - for example accept a negotiated Brexit deal; stay in the EU; or leave with no deal - then just 34 per cent could decide the winning option. Britain could vote to remain in the EU, but would have already left by the time the vote is held. While the public may back a second referendum, it’s unclear on what terms they would like it to be. While some would like the option to be the Brexit deal or remaining in the EU, others would like to be the Brexit deal or a clean break.

Extending Article 50

The EU could agree to extend the Article 50 deadline up to July but that would need to be unanimously agreed by all EU member states.

Summary of options

1. A no deal,
2. A "managed" no deal, a pivot to a Norway-style relationship
3. A second referendum
4. A General Election