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THE WORLD OVER THE NEXT DECADE

Submitted by christian on Wed, 12/27/2023 - 18:12
  1. Russia will collapse over the next decade: The Kremlin’s war against Ukraine will precipitate Russia into a failed state or break up internally by 2034 because of revolution, civil war, political disintegration, or some other reason.
  2. Russia will not engage in a direct fight with the United States and NATO because the conflict in Ukraine can be contained to that country and the war has exposed Russia as too weak to take the fight directly to NATO.
  3. More countries will acquire nuclear weapons and there will be less cooperation on stopping the spread of these weapons, but not necessarily their actual nuclear use. Iran, Saudi Arabia, Japan, South Korea will acquire nuclear weapons. Weapons if used will be deployed in a regional rather than global conflict. Russia is likely to use such a weapon by 2034.  North Korea  presumably would also deploy nuclear weapons regionally against neighbors without nuclear weapons rather than, say, a country with superior nuclear capabilities such as the United States.
  4. A Chinese military offensive against Taiwan: China will launch a military campaign to reunify Taiwan with the mainland on a faster-than-anticipated schedule between now and 2027. A Chinese military assault on Taiwan will likely prompt the United States to intervene in support of the island.
  5. There won't be a decoupling of the U.S. and Chinese economies. Full-blown decoupling is very unlikely. Despite all the geopolitical tensions and tit-for-tat trade restrictions between the two countries, the most likely outcome is that the US and Chinese economies will be “somewhat less” interdependent in 2034 than they are today.
  6. The United States will remain powerful but not hegemonic. The U.S. will remain a dominant power over the next ten years in some domains of national clout but not others. The U.S. will continue to be the world’s dominant military power by 2034 and  maintain its technological dominance over everyone else. The U.S. may lose its economic and diplomatic dominance. Among pessimists, by 2033, the United States will be a failed state; it will have broken apart; or it will no longer be the world’s dominant power in any category military, economic, diplomatic, or technological. Among the optimists the United States will be the single dominant power in all fields: military, economic, diplomatic, and technological. The US. will not have a multifaceted hegemony by 2034.
  7. Global cooperation on climate is set to increase. Climate change is the issue most likely to shoot up the international policy agenda in the coming decade. It will garner the biggest increase in international collaboration, ahead of public health. Environmental movements will have the most political influence worldwide over the next ten years. Global cooperation could result from both a proactive effort to accelerate the clean-energy transition or a more reactive response to a still-rapidly warming world. Greenhouse-gas emissions may not have peaked and declined by 2034.
  8. There will be more economic and public health perils by 2034, and more frequent and intense public-health emergencies
  9. The tug of war between democracy and autocracy will persist with democracies potentially losing some ground. No clear triumph for either democrats or autocrats over the next ten years. The number of democracies in the world will have roughly the same number democracies as it does today. The US. could go autocratic by 2034
  10. Systemic dangers for democracies. Democracies are entering a dangerous decade in which they will need to contend with nationalist and populist forces and all the challenges associated with rapidly evolving technology. Nationalist or populist movements will have the most political influence worldwide over the next ten years, There is a connection between gathering nationalist and populist strength and greater popular pressure toward autocracy. Trends in mass communication and new technologies also present potential perils for democracies. Against the backdrop of a tech sector undergoing great transformation—from new regulatory efforts to the corporate upheaval at social-media companies to the ways in which these platforms have been caught up in broader political polarization social media will prove a net negative for democracies by 2034. There are two contrasting scenarios for the coming decade. One of a world with democracy in decline, corroded by nationalism, populism, and social media, with a more autocratic United States deepening the trend. And another—predicted by a minority—of a world where democracy is ascendant, bolstered by a democratic United States, as well as social movements and mass-communication platforms consistent with democratic values.
  11. International security organizations are likely to remain largely unchanged even as the world confronts unprecedented change and challenges. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has revealed the capabilities and limits of institutions designed to enhance international security, but the world existing security architecture will stay mostly the same. NATO will remain an alliance of North American and European countries based on mutual security guarantees.  No new permanent seats will be added to the UN by 2033. The UN Security Council will lose relevance as an increasing number of decisions about international security are made elsewhere.

 

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THE WORLD OVER THE NEXT DECADE

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