WHY WESTERN DIPLOMACY FAILED IN CRIMEA

Overall, Western diplomats failed to understand the existential importance of Ukraine to Russia. Specifically:

1. There was no formula offered for joint sovereignty over Crimea with the understanding that Russia would have a clear and unequivocal Russian sovereignty over Sevastopol.

2. The West did not  come up with a formula that would make Ukraine's system of governance much more decentralized. Currently, regional governors are appointed by the government in Kiev. Going forward, the regions  require much greater autonomy, and at a minimum governors should be elected rather than appointed.

3. The West did not come up with some way to reassure Russia that Ukraine would not be a candidate for NATO expansion. Ukraine's membership in NATO is Putin's great fear and is a big part of what has been driving Russia's actions.  An end to NATO expansion into the former Soviet space is the sine qua non of any compromise with the Russians. In a Western media culture that largely disdains context or history, Putin has been made the villain in the piece. But Russia has legitimate security concerns in its near-neighbourgh. The Russian fear is far less about economic relations with the European Union (Russia is a major source of energy for the Europeans) than about the further extension of NATO to its borders. A hostile Ukraine might displace Russian bases in the Black Sea, harbor the U.S. fleet and provide a home to NATO bases. This isn't an irrational fear. Despite U.S. promises by George H.W. Bush not to extend NATO when Germany was united, the reality is that nine former Warsaw Pact nations and three former Soviet republics have been incorporated into NATO, including a military outpost in Georgia. And the E.U. agreement, advertised as offering access to free trade, in fact included military clauses that called for integrating Ukraine into the E.U. defense structure, including cooperation on "civilian and military crisis management operations" and "relevant exercises" concerning them. No one should be surprised that Putin reacted negatively to that prospect.

It makes no sense for the West to flex its muscles and back Russia into a corner. It will only backfire. This is unfortunate, but it is a fact.

• President Obama emphasizes that the Crimean 'referendum,' violates the Ukrainian constitution and occurred under duress of Russian military intervention, and will never be recognized by the United States and the international community . He emphasizes that Russia's actions were in violation of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity and that, in coordination with its European partners, additional costs are going to be imposed on Russia for its actions. Earlier, the White House released a statement that said the vote was "administered under threats of violence and intimidation from a Russian military intervention that violates international law."
• U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry reaffirmed in a call with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov that the United States considered the referendum illegal under Ukrainian law and that the United States will not recognize the outcome.
• The European Union on Sunday repeated its "strong condemnation" of the referendum and called on Russia to withdraw its troops from the region. It, too, has called the referendum illegal and said it is looking at sanctions.