WHAT POLITICAL BALANCE OF POWER IN THE NEXT EP?

The European Union is today facing an important turn in its history. The political situation in Europe has importantly shifted over the past few years. Indeed in the current context today’s Euro skepticism is often combined with a new highly concerning rise of extreme parties who, despite their many differences, all share at least one important common thread: they are anti-Euro and anti-Europe. It is this dangerous cocktail of skepticism, lack of interest, and national political instability, that most experts are afraid of.

European citizens are now not only feeling disconnected from affairs in Brussels but seem to be also pushed toward an increasingly powerful Eurosceptic populism, ready to undertake actions against the European institutions by democratically showing their discontent via the voting booth. What would happen should a Pan European anti EU alliance manage to make its way through the next election with the sole intention of blocking a well-functioning EU ? Vote of the budget, approval or rejection of legislation through the ordinary legislative procedure; most of the European Parliament’s decisions are today taken by a majority of the vote cast. Hence, one can fairly argue that a consequent and powerful anti EU alliance only aiming to block the legislative process could be indeed extremely harmful towards the well-being of the European Parliament.

Although the rise of Euroscepticism might be European-wide, not all European countries possess within their political ranks anti-Europe parties powerful enough to counter the good flow of the elections. Second of all, all these anti-Europe parties are actually quite distinct from one another. Indeed, while some of them indeed radically stand against the mere existence of the European Union, others appear to be more open to compromises.

On the basis of the 2009 results and recent opinion polls for the eight most populated countries (i.e. “swing states”) the following observations can be made for the composition of the next European Parliament:

• The race between the European People’s Party (EPP) and the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) could be very tight: both of them could be around 28% of the seats (+3 points for S&D and -7 for EPP, compared to 2009);
• Both the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) and the Greens/European Free Alliance (Greens/EFA) might face losses while European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), European United Left/Nordic Green Left (GUE-NGL) and Europe of Freedom and Democracy (EFD) are likely to remain stable or have slightly better scores;
• The “populist” forces (mainly from the right but also from the radical left) might garner a bit more than 200 seats in May 2014 (against around 140 today), then progressing from a bit less than 20% of the seats to a bit more than 25%.

The real challenge in the EP, as the assembly of a separated powers system, lies in forming a majority:

• Three coalitions were able to do so in 2009-14 (a “grand coalition”: EPP, S&D, with or without ALDE; a “cen­ter left coalition” (S&D, ALDE, Greens/EFA, GUE/NGL) and a “center right coalition” (EPP, ALDE, ECR);
• The next winning coalition(s) will determine both the election of the Commission President for 2014-19 and the work of the European Parliament as a co-legislator. The likely rise in the share of “populist” MEPs will make a grand coalition even more likely: The estimations for 2014 put forward see a “center left coali­tion” at 48% of the seats and a “center right coalition” at 44%;
• The political game is then very open at this stage, and the major issue in terms of balance of power in the next EP is to know who will finally take the lead between the left and the right (a populist victory being out of reach in terms of seats).