1. U.S. elections results. After a grueling and exhausting Biden-Trump rematch, U.S. President Joe Biden will narrowly eke out a win for a second term, in yet another election cycle marred by disinformation that will muddy the waters on what’s fact and what’s not, with more shouts about “stolen votes.” Republicans will regain control of the Senate by two or three seats, and Democrats will gain narrow control of the House by under 10 seats, setting the stage for another complex, messy, political headache of a divided government.

2. North Korea will conduct its seventh nuclear test. Lleader Kim Jong Un is slowly but surely expanding his country’s nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities despite punishing international sanctions. In 2024 he will carry a seventh explosive nuclear test, in what will constitute another major diplomatic crisis on the Korean Peninsula

3. More coups in Africa’s “Coup Belt.” The next domino to fall will be Chad, the West’s next “last best hope” counterterrorism partner in the region. Chad’s. Leader, Mahamat Idriss Déby’s grip on power is shaky, and it’s unclear if he can beat the odds of escaping yet another coup in Africa’s Coup Belt.

4. Sudan’s military leader will get ousted. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the leader of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and de facto head of the country, will be ousted by elements of his own military after embarrassing setbacks and defeats against the rival Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Sudan has become one of the world’s worst (and most tragically overlooked) humanitarian crises, and that isn’t likely to change in 2024.

5. A stalemate in Ukraine.  2024 will look a lot like the bloody but static World War I battles of 1915 and 1916, with heavy artillery bashing entrenched positions, more deadly battles that yield little territorial gains, and little to show for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ill-fated war besides a higher death toll on both sides.

6. More funds unlocked for Ukraine. There are some $300 billion in assets from Russian oligarchs that regulators have frozen. In 2024, the United States and European allies will find a legal pathway to siphon all those frozen funds to Ukraine

7. The Israel-Hamas war won’t expand to a (full) second front). Although Israel and Hezbollah trade limited pot shots on the northern border, Hezbollah and its backers in Iran will hold off from diving headfirst into the fight thanks in part to the deterrent effect of the ongoing U.S. aircraft carrier presence in the Mediterranean, and all the overwhelming firepower that comes with it.

8. More dangerous maneuvers in the South China Sea. China will continue to harass resupply vessels with dangerous maneuvers and water cannons in an effort to scare Manila away. This trend will continue in 2024, as the U.S. Defense Department has also complained of increasing recklessness by Chinese ships and planes, not just at the Second Thomas Shoal but throughout the whole area of operations.

9. Sweden actually finally joins NATO. U.S. and Turkish negotiators will work with Sweden to overcome the impasse in 2024 and NATO will finally expand from 31 to 32 members.

10. Global health community goes on the offensive against malaria. The global health community will overcome vaccine bottlenecks in 2024 and make real, tangible, verifiable progress toward achieving the World Health Organization’s goal of eliminating malaria by 2030.

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