US- RUSSIAN RELATIONS: HOW DO EXPERTS VIEW THEM ?

Robert Legvold, Professor Emeritus in the Department of Political Science and the Harriman Institute of Columbia University: The two countries start from a very low point, and there is no chance they will soon change the underlying character of the relationship that is, a deep mistrust of the other side, profound differences over key issues, such as Ukraine, and a tendency to focus on limitations rather than opportunities. But the recent Sochi meeting may open the way for both sides to take a different approach to the relationship.

Fyodor Lukyanov, Editor-in-Chief of the journal Russia in Global Affairs, Chairman of Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy: The Sochi meeting shows that both sides, Russia and the U.S., became aware of the fact that the situation when two large nuclear superpowers barely have working channels of communication for over a year is quite dangerous. Because in such situation the question is not of an open military conflict (as no one intends to start a war), but there is a necessity to maintain the contact in order to understand the partner’s intentions and logic. I would not expect the sanctions to be lifted any time soon as Secretary Kerry and his colleagues continue to say that it can only happen if the Minsk agreements are fully realized. However, the agreements signed in Minsk and their implementation is a very diffused thing that is hard to measure. Most likely, in the near future the sanctions will not be lifted. In the U.S. the mechanism of lifting sanctions is very complex. If sanctions are introduced, it is very hard to lift them later.

Andrey Kortunov, President of New Eurasia Foundation, General Director of Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC): The fact that Kerry’s visit to Sochi took place for the first time in two years indicates that it is generally an extraordinary event. Different factors have played a role here. On the one hand, there is the desire to preserve the dialogue, especially, in the times of a growing number of international problems, where Russian and American interests are the same. On the other hand, there is the desire to take part in tackling the Ukrainian crisis.

Richard Sakwa, Professor of Russian and European Politics, Head of School at University of Kent, Member of Comparative Politics Research Group: This [Kerry’s visit] is a very positive development. The fact that President Obama has sent his Secretary of State all the way to Sochi suggests the beginning of an understanding that the solution facing the two countries and larger regional and global issues can only be resolved through dialogue. This is the first meeting between Kerry and Putin in two years, and does suggest that the freeze is beginning to thaw. What is the potential for improvement in U.S.-Russian relations? There is a lot of ground to make up, and this is a small sign of a possible path back towards, not so much an improvement, as the beginning of understanding. However, the gulf in understanding between the two countries remains enormous, and the Ukrainian situation will constantly act as an irritant; sometimes it seems deliberately so. With an American election coming up, things will get all the more heated. The two countries operate, as it were, on two different levels of reality, both relatively coherent in their own terms, but ultimately lacking a mode of dialogue between the two.

Nicolai Petro, Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island, specializing in Russian affairs: It is far too early, however, to speak of a return to “business as usual” between the United States and Russia. As Russia sees it, efforts by the United States to promote turmoil in Ukraine, along with its attempts to organize Russia’s political and economic isolation are hardly forgotten. It is just that the United States belatedly realizes that it needs Russia’s assistance in managing other international crisis, and that its policies of imposing sanctions have led to a great deal of friction with Europe, as well as moved cooperation between China and Russia to a new level. This last item could ultimately threaten the long-term interests of the United States. To me, however, it is inconceivable that Russia will resume normal relations with the current U.S. administration - too much reckless damage has been done. This does not mean, however, that the stage cannot be set for the resumption of closer ties with some future administrations.

Ukraine

The U.S. will now exercise additional influence on Kiev to implement the Minsk agreements, while Moscow in turn will use its leverage on the self-proclaimed “republics” in the Donbass. The Minsk agreements serve as an area of common ground for the American and Russian sides, something that is very important for Moscow, which is one of the guarantors of their implementation. If earlier the U.S. limited itself to political and diplomatic recognition of the importance of the Minsk agreements, Washington will now play an active part in the negotiations over the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis. In turn, this will increase the chances for peace in the region, considering the unusually close ties between Kiev and the White House. Furthermore, despite the lack of a clear statement on the issue by Kerry, Russian commentators are of the opinion that the U.S. has essentially joined the ongoing negotiations on the settlement of the conflict in eastern Ukraine.