UK REFERENDUM: OUTCOME STAY SCENARIOS

Author: Kirsty Hughes (Writer and Commentator on European and international politics)

Scenario 1

In the first scenario, the United Kingdom stays in with all four constituent parts (England,Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland) voting to remain. There is a clear and non-divisive result. And while the Tory eurosceptics are unlikely to give up their cause, this will surely deal with the issue of EU membership for a long time. There will be great relief in all EU Member States and in Brussels, and especially in Ireland, where the impact of a 'Brexit' would be most strongly felt of all the other Member States. Those in Scotland who hope a vote for 'Brexit' would trigger a second independence referendum will be disappointed. But there are upsides for those supporting Scottish independence: it is much much easier to envisage an independent Scotland if both Scotland and the rest of the UK are in the EU borders, free movement, trade and even currency issues would be much harder if England was outside the EU and Scotland inside.

There is one clear negative knock-on impact of the referendum in this scenario. This is that the deal negotiated by Cameron, combined with the referendum result would reinforce the UK's current semi-detached, low influence role in the EU. Where in the past, the UK has been a strategic and high influence player in Europe, this role has been clearly diminished in recent years. While Cameron would surely claim a  majority 'remain' vote demonstrates support for the deal he brought home, demands from the UK will reinforce the country's role as a semi-detached Member State focused only on trade and the Single Market, not a Member State that is interested in the whole gamut of the EU's policy and critical challenges, from relations with Ukraine and Russia, to the refugee crisis, terrorism, and social and employment issues. There is nothing to indicate that after the referendum Cameron, or any other Tory Prime Minister will attempt to rebuild the influence and clout at the EU's top tables that they have lost in the last few years. Any future UK government that would take a more positive, strategic and active role in the EU may find themselves challenged by those who claim the referendum 'remain' vote was a vote for a disengaged, opted-out Britain in Europe. 

Scenario 2

In the second scenario, the UK votes to remain  despite an English vote to leave. Current polls suggest that Scotland and Northern Ireland will vote strongly to stay in the EU with Wales positive but less strongly in favour. If support is at these levels or higher on referendum day, the votes from these three parts of the UK would counteract an English 'leave' vote up to levels of 51% or 52% of voters in England voting for a Brexit.

Ironies will abound at this point. UKIP and other eurosceptics may suddenly find themselves strong converts to a dissolution of the UK, and even unlikely proponents of an independent Scotland. Given England is the heartland of Tory eurosceptics, such a result will surely fuel their cause into the long term. The referendum will not, in any way, have calmed the permanent tensions over the EU in the Tory party. And new constitutional debates about the UK, driven by English nationalism, will spring up. 

A clear vote in England against the EU (say at a level of 52% voting to leave) could mean any UK government in the years after the referendum would find it hard to play a highly active, strategic role in Europe, and would face much criticism from English sceptics including in the mediqa if they did. This will cause little trouble to the current Tory government but any future Labour government may find itself hamstrung. The UK as .a whole will be visibly divided on Europe both across its four constituent parts, and with the 'remain' vote only just having won the day.

There would also be implications for Scotland and any future push for independence after such a vote. Brussels and the EU's 27 other Member States would, for sure, be very grateful for the pro-European sentiments of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland keeping the UK in the EU. But there would then be a clear and even present risk that, as and when Scotland holds a second independence referendum, this could trigger new demands in England for a second Brexit referendum. Without Scotland in the UK, a second EU referendum could easily translate into a Brexit not long after.

In the end, a vote for the UK to stay in the EU will, of course, create many fewer waves in the UK, EU and around the world than a vote to leave. But whichever way the vote goes, the referendum is likely to impact both on the UK's future influence in, and strategy towards, the EU, and on its own internal politics.

If all parts of the UK vote to stay in the EU, this would reinforce the UK's current semi-detached, low influence role in Brussels, and make it difficult for a future, more pro-European government to change that.

If voters in Scotland, Wales and Norr-thern Ireland keep the UK in the EU, despite an English vote to leave, this will create a major debate amongst English nationalists and will surely not lead to the eurosceptic cause dying down. And any future Scottish vote for independence would be highly likely to trigger a demand in England for a second EU referendum.

If England votes to leave in such numbers that there is a Brexit, against the wishes of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, this could trigger a second independence referendum in Scotland. And Scotland may at that point find Brussels much more positive about its chances of rapidly becoming an independent Member State of the EU. But if Scottish opinion polls do not shift enough towards independence, the Scottish government may instead have to look for ways to keep Scotland more integratde than England with the EU, but from the outside. Relations between England and Scotland will certianly sour dramatically at that point. 

Whether it is a 'remain' or a 'leave' vote, it is clear that the referendum will impact, most negatively, on the UK's politics, and its engagement with the EU, for many years to come.