TENSIONS BETWEEN BRUSSELS AND LONDON LOOMING

Contrary to popular belief, the Brexit deal is certainly not done. The situation in Northern Ireland remains unstable and British relations with their European Union counterparts are extremely poor. Liss Truss the new PM will have to decide whether she intends to remain hardline on all matters regarding Brexit and risk the consequences, or take a softer line, angering the Brexiteer base and, well, risk the consequences. 

Britain left the bloc on January 31, 2020, but has been mired since then in a dispute over the rules it had agreed to on trading arrangements for the province of Northern Ireland. Under the Brexit deal's Northern Ireland Protocol, the province remained in the EU single market for goods and customs union, preserving its open border with EU member Ireland. Britain says that arrangement, which effectively puts a customs border in the Irish Sea, is unworkable. The EU has already launched legal proceedings for breaches of what it maintains is a binding treaty.

If Truss decides to trigger a so-called "Article 16" emergency provision and takes unilateral action on Northern Ireland, it would be seen as “a provocative act” and would only exacerbate tensions between Brussels and the UK prime minister.

Under Article 16, Brussels would be obliged under treaty obligations to meet the UK to discuss the problems raised by London.  There is a September 15 deadline for the UK to respond to a European Commission legal action which spelt the end of the so-called ‘grace periods’ for phasing in the border checks which both sides agreed to in 2020. Initially planned to last between three and six months, they were extended indefinitely by the UK in July 2021 with the tacit approval of Brussels. This was withdrawn when the UK proposed its legislation to unilaterally rip up the protocol.

Under the terms of the protocol, the clause can be triggered if either side believes the agreement has led to “serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties”. Once triggered, the two sides enter into “immediate consultation” in the joint committee that governs the deal, but either one can take “proportionate rebalancing measures” if an agreement cannot be reached. Among the specific areas the UK is expected to target is the recent imposition of 25 per cent tariffs on some steel products moving from Great Britain into Northern Ireland, which London has condemned as an example of how the deal is “needlessly damaging trade within the UK”. Since the UK proposed a bill to unilaterally override many provisions of the protocol, in June the EU has brought six new legal cases against London for breaches of the protocol and reactivated another.

EU Infringement proceedings against the United Kingdom for not complying with significant parts of the Protocol on Ireland / Northern Ireland.

1. UK failing to properly implement the Protocol, notably regarding the certification requirements for the movement of agri-food.
2. UK failing to carry out its obligations under the EU's sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) rules. In particular, the UK is not carrying out the necessary controls, and is failing to ensure adequate staffing and infrastructure, at Border Control Posts in Northern Ireland.
3. UK failing to provide the EU with certain trade statistics data in respect of Northern Ireland, as required under the Protocol.
4. UK failing to comply with the requirements of the Union Customs Code regarding the movement of goods from Northern Ireland to Great Britain
5. UK failing to implement EU rules on VAT for e-commerce, namely the Import One-Stop Shop (IOSS).
6. UK failing to implement general EU rules on excise duties.
7. UK failing to implement EU rules on excise duties on alcohol and alcoholic beverages.