THREE SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE OF EUROPEAN SECURITY ORDER

In the broader global framework of uncertainty and change, it is likely that the struggle over the future European security order will continue until one or the other side is too exhausted to continue. One can envisage the following three basic scenarios after the war in Ukraine, with the two first ones based on the assumption that there will be no principled change in Russia’s vision of European security, and the third one – more idealistic but unfortunately less likely – predicated on a radical change inside Russia.