RUSSIA’S TOOLKIT OF MILITARY AND NONMILITARY TACTICS

A looming large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine is unlikely. However, this does not preclude alternative, nonconventional military measures by Russia. These could entail various aspects of hybrid warfare, such as covert activity, political manipulation, cyberattacks, propaganda, and misinformation including the signaling of a potential invasion that we are seeing now. There is also the possibility of Russian military buildups elsewhere, such as weapons deployments to Kaliningrad or in countries that are friendlier to Moscow, such as Belarus.