SUPPORTING SOUTH CAUCASUS TRILATERALISM

In 2012, the foreign ministers of Turkey, Georgia, and Azerbaijan met in Trabzon to sign what is now known as the Trabzon Declaration, which codified the growing links between the three Caucasus powers and signaled the pooling of their efforts within a common format. The signatories pledged to support each other's candidacies within international organizations, including, crucially, Euro-Atlantic integration. The Declaration also reiterated the three states' longstanding policy of the inviolability of sovereign borders - a direct nod to Georgia and Azerbaijan's separatist conflicts.

Especially over the past decade, relations between the three countries have powerfully increased due to a convergence of economic and geopolitical interests. While trilateral relations have older roots, it was not until the vision of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline began to take shape in the 1990s that the three states began to cooperate as something resembling a joint grouping. After the BTC came online, later followed by the South Caucasus pipeline, other projects began to emerge. Ankara's economic and geopolitical strategy depended on the stable and voluminous flow of hydrocarbons from Azerbaijan and the Caspian to not only provide Turkey with badly needed energy, the lifeblood of its economic growth, but also offered diversification away from Russian "strings-attached" energy to Central and Eastern European markets as well. This had the added effect of helping realize Turkish aspirations to transform from a peripheral state to a "hub" or "bridge" state, as the Euro-Atlantic space was essentially expanded to the Caspian.

In the Caucasus, Turkey's energy needs and strong partnership with Azerbaijan acted as a cornerstone for Ankara's strategy. Georgia was also included given its strategic location as a physical link between Turkey and Azerbaijan. For Georgia, cooperation with Turkey, a NATO member state and in a customs union with the EU , acted as a window to the Euro-Atlantic.

Trilateralism grew from Turkey's need for energy, Azerbaijan's ability to supply it, and Georgia's physical location to bring the two states together. Undergirded by Strategic Depth, cooperation gradually increased and barriers fell away. In 2012, the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) was announced, adding yet another trilateral energy artery. And the recently-announced Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) will ensure that Caspian hydrocarbons will make their way to European markets. In addition, the trilateral Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway (BTK) project, scheduled for completion in 2014, will add further capacity for the transport of energy, goods, and people. To take advantage of the economic potential of the projects, Turkey has called for establishing a joint trilateral economic space. Turkey already has free-trade and passport-free agreements with Georgia and is reportedly in negotiations with Azerbaijan for the same.

The economic and geopolitical aspects of trilateralism are closely intertwined. The economic projects integrate the three states and bolster the geostrategic significance of the entire South Caucasus region. This also enhances Ankara's position as a South Caucasus power, despite a traditional bias towards Europe and the Middle East.

Geopolitically, trilateralism represents a convergence of their strategic objectives. For Turkey, energy needs and the Strategic Depth vision make its involvement in the South Caucasus natural. To Georgia, Turkey has transitioned from a portal to Europe and strong trade partner into a potentially legitimate regional counterweight to Russia and even a possible hedge against the glacial rate of progress towards NATO membership. And trilateralism not only offers Azerbaijan more reliable and friendlier markets for its energy, but amplifies Baku's geopolitical prominence. In each of these cases, the three states' narrower national interests are superseded by the broader benefits of trilateralism itself.

Although Georgia has sought to moderately normalize its relations with Russia, Georgian foreign policy remains much less multi-vectored than that of Azerbaijan or even Turkey – which both depend on Russia for trade or energy. More concerning is the paucity of depth of trilateralism below the intergovernmental level. While Turkey and Azerbaijan have closely related cultures, languages, and religion (though predominantly Sunni and Shiite, respectively), Christian Orthodox Georgia is very much culturally and linguistically distinct.

Turkish-Georgia-Azerbaijani trilateralism is already an emerging force in the South Caucasus.  Despite challenges, this trilateral entente has the potential to be the prevailing player in the South Caucasus if it maintains its upwards trajectory. Given largely overlapping interests, the West has and should continue to support the development of South Caucasus trilateralism.