THE SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANIZATION (SCO) AND INDIAN AND PAKISTANESE MEMBERSHIP

The SCO is now dominated by two powers, Russia and China, and also includes the Central Asian Republics Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Those were the original six members when the group was founded in 2001. Russia's interest in SCO expansion is relatively obvious: in the wake of the collapse of its relations with the West, the Kremlin is eager to make it appear that it doesn't need Europe or the U.S.  But China's motivations are less clear, as Beijing isn't as desperate for affirmation and adding India and Pakistan runs the risk of watering down China's ability to use the group for its own ends in Central Asia. The inclusion of India and Pakistan (the two South Asian countries are likely to become permanent members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization at the 2015 summit in Ufa) will take the spotlight away from the China-Russia relationship, and tensions over the organization's purpose and role.

The addition of India and Pakistan to the SCO .

When considering economic opportunities, South Asia is the gate to the Indian Ocean and this can be beneficial for China, Russia and Central Asian countries to export their goods through the Indian Ocean. India and Russia have discussed at a high governmental level the building of a transport corridor “South-North” connecting Russia with the Indian Ocean as well as Central Asian countries. India and Pakistan represent a lot of economic benefits for further SCO development. Pakistan is supported by China and, particularly, by Uzbekistan with which Pakistan has prosperous partnerships. On the other side, China is a main partner of Pakistan in military and technical cooperation as well as its major economic partner. It should also be mentioned that SCO membership for Pakistan would be very useful economically and to fight terrorism as the majority of  the Taliban are in Central Asia. Pakistan plans to encourage SCO members in building the Trans-Afghan gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to Pakistan and India through Afghanistan. Turkmenistan is not SCO member but it intends to join SCO. Besides energy projects, SCO membership lets Pakistan to diversify its foreign policy in contrast of estrangement relations with the USA and to reinforce negotiations between Pakistan and the West. In addition, Pakistan can improve its authority and influence in Central Asia as a part of the SCO. The interests of Pakistan to join SCO should be understood politically. Pakistan did strive to increase its authority in Central Asia after the Soviet collapse in 1991. Islamabad is interested in economic and strong political partnerships in Central Asian region to restrain its rival India . Pakistan has no joint borders with Central Asian states that can be negatively considered for possible participation of Pakistan in the SCO. Afghanistan divides Central Asian countries from Pakistan that obstructs the use of Pakistan in oil and gas export from Central Asian region to external markets. It is also important to note that Russia does not perceive Pakistan as a friendly state due the Soviet-Afghan conflict when Islamabad supported mujahidin. .

India is interested to cooperate with SCO for the development of joint regional energy projects as well as regional partnerships to prevent transnational terrorism, religious extremism, and drug traffic. There are also economic interests for India for being part of the organization. India is the sixth largest consumer of energy in the world. Compared with China, India is more dependent on oil import.  India imports around 70% of its oil. To diverse its energy sources India attempts to improve its auspicious relations with Central Asia which is friendlier towards India than Afghanistan or Pakistan. India has an enduring relationship with Central Asian countries and Russia dating back from the Soviet period. Russia supports India implicitly to provide some counterpart balance for China in the SCO.

If Pakistan is affiliated with China, India is mostly understood as the close ally of Russia.

• If both countries join the SCO and do not improve their mutual relationships, there is a high probability that the SCO will suffer from Indian-Pakistani contradictions and conflicts.
• India and Pakistan are big countries with sophisticated relations to SCO members, so their becoming SCO members could infringe functional structures of the organization.
• Because India and Pakistan possess nuclear weapons, this can contradict SCO's efforts to control nuclear armaments.
• The addition of India and Pakistan will affect China mainly in terms of reaching a consensus and possible vetoing. When China-India and China-Pakistan border issues intensify, they might affect SCO cooperation.

On the other hand:

• Adding India and Pakistan can be conducive to the implementation of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the Marine Silk Road. Two economic corridors- China-Pakistan and Bangladesh-China-India-Burma, are closely associated with its construction that needs further cooperation to achieve greater progress. Both India and Pakistan have embarked on deepening their pragmatic cooperation in politics, economics, trade, science, culture education, energy, transportation and environmental protection.
• Adding India and Pakistan can help to deepen cooperation against terrorism, strengthen SCO security cooperation and combat the inflitration and the threat of extreme terrorism in the region.
• The China-India border issue is still not resolved and is cause for friction. Indian participation in the SCO provides an opportunity for face-to-face China-India communications and the maintenance of peace in the border areas.
• Adding India and Pakistan can help reduce geopolitical pressure. For China the issues of the Korean Peninsula, the Diaoyu Islands and the South China Sea are possing tough challenges for regional stability. The inclusion of India and Pakistan opens up China's strategic space and enables China to address the issues.