SAVE LEBANON !!!

If external powers — especially the European Union, Britain, the United States, Canada, and Australia — believe that Lebanon’s stability remains an important ingredient in the regional geopolitical context, they should embark on a bold strategy to prevent Lebanon from becoming a failed state. These countries would find support within their own borders from their hundreds of thousands of Lebanese immigrants. 

Lebanon's collapse will have a destabilizing ripple effect throughout the region. Terrorist groups and their regional affiliates, plus potentially nefarious state actors in the neighborhood will rush in to fill the ensuing vacuum, which would be inimical to Western regional interests. Wedged between Syria to the north and east and Israel to the south, Lebanon could be the low hanging fruit for these unsavory actors.

To be effective, a salvation strategy should have short-term and long-term components. In the short-term, the EU+4 group should establish a multi-billion dollar international fund to help the Lebanese economy recover to be disbursed through a special Economic Council for Lebanon, which would be created by the EU+4. Such a Council would comprise non-political Lebanese technocrats, plus representatives from the EU+4 group. The Council must be accountable for the funds it receives and their distribution and spending.

Also in the short-term, the EU+4 should work with Lebanese professionals and technocrats to form a new government of distinguished technocrats, academics, and business people with the sole purpose of reviving the economy and employment. The new government can also focus on reducing hunger in the country through food and fuel subsidies and job creation initiatives.

As part of the long-term strategy, the EU+4 will need to tackle the confessional or sectarian basis of governance in Lebanon, which has been a major root cause of the country’s endemic corruption. The EU+4’s designated emissary for Lebanon should start a series of meetings with representatives of different centers of power and influence, professional groups, non-governmental organizations, religious leaders, academic and business experts, and representatives from universities, labor, and small businesses that constitute the backbone of the Lebanese economy.

The goal of these meetings is to explore different modalities for the future governance of Lebanon. Early in its modern history, the confessional system helped stabilize the country and created a functioning system of government. The economic, demographic, and political changes in recent decades, however, have rendered the confessional system obsolete. It must be changed if Lebanon is to be saved.