THE RUSSIANS ARE COMING (IN SYRIA)

Source: Stratfor

"The entry of the new fighters in Syria highlights the complications that Russia's involvement in the conflict pose for the United States and its allies. As Russia's military buildup in Syria continues, the United States has publicly expressed alarm at the possibility that Russia-supported Syrian loyalists could clash with U.S.-backed rebel groups. Indeed, Moscow has rightfully judged that direct Russian intervention in Syria will help break Russia out of isolation and will force Washington to begin direct military-to-military talks with the Russians on Syria.

Greater Russian involvement in Syria will also help Moscow push the negotiations toward a solution more amenable to its interests and to those of its allies. What is unclear, however, is the extent to which Russia would involve itself in a messy and potentially protracted conflict in Syria, where mission creep is a significant risk. To an extent, the degree to which Russia devotes resources and manpower to Syria will depend on the evolving military landscape of the conflict. For instance, Russia will probably maintain a certain degree of flexibility to enable it to scale up its commitment in case reversals on the battlefield place a dangerous level of stress on its Syrian allies.

But what is already apparent is that, with the possible exception of Iran, Russia has demonstrated more of a willingness to step into the Syrian conflict than has any other state actor. Efforts to resolve the conflict continue, but negotiating a solution is impossible without the buy-in of the groups fighting.

The deployment of Russian aircraft to Syria greatly complicates the U.S.-led coalition's air campaign in the conflict as well. Establishing deconfliction procedures, already a complex process of avoiding interference among allied forces, becomes all the more difficult with the introduction of non-allied aircraft. In fact, at this point there is no guarantee that coalition and Russian aircraft will even be willing to communicate with each other to set up such procedures. Coalition aircraft may find themselves providing close air support to New Syrian Forces embedded with a Free Syrian Army unit that Russian aircraft are targeting. While a direct clash between coalition and Russian aircraft is highly unlikely, an active Russian air presence in the region would only muddle the battlefield in Syria's airspace more. Russia's primary motive for building up its presence in Syria is likely to bolster loyalist forces as it negotiates a solution to the conflict that safeguards its interests. Still, the conflict's continuation is more likely than a negotiated resolution, at least in the short-to-medium term. Therefore, Russian forces will likely continue to complicate U.S., Turkish, Israeli and Gulf Cooperation Council actions in Syria. It will also put Russian troops closer to an active battlefield where opposing rebel forces are using lethal weapons at least partially supplied by the United States, Turkey and Arab countries — a situation that has not been seen since the Soviet-Afghan War. It is possible that some of these countries, especially the Gulf states and Turkey, will try to boost their support for the rebels to compensate for the growing Russian and Iranian aid to the Syrian government. Such measures will only further exacerbate the civil war and proxy battles taking place in Syria, even as negotiators continue to seek a solution to the increasingly complex conflict."