RUSSIA IS NOT A THREAT TO EUROPE

“ Russia is not a threat to Europe. Times have changed since the Cold War, when the Soviet Union was indeed Europe’s biggest threat. Today, Europe’s main threats come from elsewhere: primarily, the fear of immigration and the lack of economic recovery, especially in southern and eastern European counties. Together, these fuel citizens’ anxieties to the benefit of populist parties, who offer no effective solutions but very powerful rhetoric. Russia’s support of far-right movements has not produced results in European voting booths, differing from the situation in the United States (which has led to recent indictments), and is a sign that European democracies are in better health than America’s (which says a lot.) It is worth remembering that the first covert CIA operation aimed at influencing a foreign country’s election was led in Italy during the 1948 general election. Squeezed between U.S. disengagement and Russian activism, Europe has the opportunity to respond by integrating further. Permanent Structure Cooperation (PESCO) was a step forward, but more needs to be done. Only by becoming stronger will Europe be able to successfully deal with both its many endogenous and exogenous threats.” Federiga Bindi, Senior Fellow at the School of Advanced International Studies at John Hopkins University, Jean Monnet Chair at the University of Rome Tor Vergata, and D. German Distinguished Visiting Chair at Appalachian State University.

“ The biggest threats facing Europe are internal. Reluctance to invest in defense, unwillingness to tackle violent extremists of all sorts, failure to invest in civic education, failure to tackle inequalities in societies- all of these are bigger long term threats than a sparsely-populated country with a terrible infrastructure and an economy smaller than South Korea’s. Russia is a threat to Europe only because Europe allows it to be. Vladimir Putin has been very adept at maximizing the effectiveness of the tools he has, keeping the West off-balance and leaving its leaders with a feeling of impotence. As the truth of Russia’s interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election has emerged, however, Europeans should take the chance to increase their resilience, in all fields. Threats are a function of relative power, in which Europe is far superior to Russia, and relative will, in which it is lacking. ” Ian Bond, Director of Foreign Policy at the Centre for European Reform.

“Europe’s biggest threat is Europe. The most peaceful, prosperous, and democratic area in the world is about to destabilize itself. Rising populism combined with protectionist nationalism, internal rivalry, and mistrust will create vulnerability in the face of any attack. Today, the shortfalls and capability gaps of NATO and the EU are largely accepted risks for European security. Thankfully, military aggression against Europe remains very unlikely. But what about the so-called hybrid threats that have already partly materialized? Massive Russian interference in the U.S. elections has been revealed. Germany, especially and oddly, seems unconcerned. Cyberattacks on public institutions are worrying, but they remain unknown territory for too many decisionmakers. As for the mass manipulation of public opinion: well, our people certainly know what to think of that. Russia is not Europe’s biggest threat, but Russia will definitely play Europe’s weaknesses and open flanks.” Anna Maria Kellner, Policy Advisor on European Foreign, Security, and Defense Policy at the Friedrich Ebert Foundation.

“Russia is not Europe’s biggest threat and Europe and the United States have to take care, that they do not make Russia stronger and more dangerous than it is. The Western liberal world is in a fundamental crisis, not because of Russia but because of the West’s own inability or slowness to adapt to a changing environment, including digitalization, globalization, and social shifts. This opens opportunities for Vladimir Putin to raise his prestige and to challenge the Western liberal order not because he is so strong, but because we are weak. If we, as European states and societies, would do our homework, there would be limited basis for populism and disinformation. Instead, there would be military capabilities, social resilience, and abilities for crisis management in the world, including in the Middle East, which raises the costs for Russia’s military provocations and shrinks the room for maneuver for Mr. Putin. This does not mean that Putin’s Russia is not a dangerous player; it has improved its military capabilities and, because it is economically weak, it is more a destabilizer than a security provider. But in focusing on Russia as the biggest threat we distract from our own political deficits and from more substantial challenges, including China.” Stefan Meister, Head of the Robert Bosch Center for Central and Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia at the German Council on Foreign Relations.

“The biggest threat to the Europe is complacency, just as the biggest threat to the United States is complacency. Putin runs a country and a system that is in decline. Russia is mired in domestic poverty, the minerals curse, and the development trap. Meanwhile, during Putin’s decades in power, China has lifted 800 million peasants out of poverty, created a middle class that outnumbers America’s, is running circles around Russia in Moscow’s Far East, and has invented a successful autocratic path to development that Westerners once thought was an oxymoron. Furthermore, Putin has “lost” Ukraine. In his undeclared war on Russia’s younger brothers, he pushed Ukrainians, for the first time in history, into an agreed self-identification that is no longer East Slav, but European. The Ukrainians, who in early 2014 could field only 6000 soldiers, learned by doing, and has built up an army that has fought the Russians and its proxies to a standstill, nullifying Putin’s boasts of possessing nuclear escalation dominance. Putin has exhibited a canny knack for aggravating Western malaise and polarization, but that wreaks destruction only if the West lets it. ” Elizabeth Pond, Berlin-based Journalist and Author.

“The unique period in human history when one power de facto ruled the world is over. Pax Americana lasted for about a quarter century, from 1989 till 2014. Now the world finds itself in a more familiar state, with several powers competing among themselves. The United States has officially designated China and Russia as major rivals challenging American primacy. China, of course, is the main challenger, given its economic and growing military power, global reach, and dynamism. Beijing has also aired a number of concepts and initiatives to remake the world, from the “community of common destiny” for all humanity to “major power relations of a new type” to the Belt and Road Initiative. Russia, by contrast, is fighting for its own security and status. Through its armed pushback in Georgia and Ukraine it effectively stopped further enlargement of NATO to the east; through its intervention in Syria, it won back the coveted title of a great power. By countering Western support for democracy and human rights in Russia with its efforts to highlight deficiencies in the West’s own conduct, the Kremlin has won some breathing space at home. Essentially, Russia stands for itself, whereas China eyes the world.” Dmitri Trenin, Dorector of the Carnegie Moscow Center