REGIONAL DEMOCRATIC MOVEMENTS IN THE EU

Secessionism is on the rise all across Europe, with movements in search of  independence from their central governments. Almost no European country regardless of the form of government is immune to subnational mobilisation movements. According to rough estimates, there are 100 groups in 29 countries that are seeking greater autonomy from the central government or self-determination. These groups greatly differ in terms of hostility towards the central government, popular support, and most importantly readiness for independence.

National disintegration or more pressing autonomist requests from local communities might be interpreted as the by-product of the European integration process itself. Irredentist groups whether ripe or not are latent, potentially devastating forces, whose destructive power increases over time through deeper economic integration both at the continental and global level. For this reason, national governments should monitor the structural dynamics that are taking place in the EU, assess their own vulnerabilities and rebalance the often-conflicting interests of the nation state and local communities through new administrative arrangements.

In countries where secessionists are dormant, national governments have many weapons in their arsenal to preserve the status quo. In the least frightening situations, central governments can appease local communities through financial transfers, generous tax arrangements, or power devolution.

When new concessions are no longer possible, governments can deter subnational groups through political threats. Yet, stubbornly suffocating ripe secessionist groups is unwise. Sooner or later, the irredentist ambitions will abruptly resurface and the political disintegration of the country will be a matter of time. Renegotiating the terms of the relationship is more beneficial than resorting to political threats or, in the most extreme cases, the use of force. A gradual transition is necessary to minimize the economic, political, and administrative costs accruing from the breakup.

An increased political fragmentation at the national level will certainly affect the balance of power within European institutions. But, if secession just involves a handful of regions, an increased number of political actors will not necessarily impair the decision-making process in Brussels. In fact, since small jurisdictions get their lifeblood from a large and well-functioning European market, they might be more willing than larger ones to deepen the degree of economic integration. However, it is in everyone’s interest to avoid a cascade of secessions, prevent an excessive fragmentation, and contain dangerous tensions.

In the 21st century, regional democratic movements will replace Great Power politics in redefining Europe’s ever-changing political map.

Role of Central Governments

1. Monitor the structural dynamics
2. Assess their own vulnerabilities
3. Renegotiate the terms of the relationship
4. Minimize the economic, political and administrative costs accruing from breakup
5. Rebalance the often-conflicting interests of the nation state and local communities through new administrative arrangements.
6. Appease local communities through financial transfers, generous tax arrangements, or power devolution