REBUILDING UKRAINE AFTER THE WAR

Author: Cynthia Cook, Director, Defense-Industrial Initiatives Group and Senior Fellow, International Security Program CSIS

The Recovery Phase

The recovery plan should aim to build a new Ukraine to meet the current and future needs of the people through sustainable economic development and social transformation; transparent and innovative approaches to governance; resilient, modern, and state-of-the-art infrastructure; and a safe, educated, healthy, and sustainable society.

After the war, President Zelensky will face the task of leading the rebuilding of his country. He and his advisers will need to develop a vision for the future of Ukraine. And that vision does not need to be— indeed, probably should not be rebuilding it to exactly the way it was before.

Recovery is also always an opportunity, with a wide variety of approaches to improve on the past. Updated building codes and green building techniques can save energy and reduce water use and may help make Ukraine a leader in green energy. Analyses can help decide where to best invest in the rebuilding of roads and where to locate modern medical facilities. Schools destroyed? Rebuild them with modern technology, where students live. Invest in reforesting and natural infrastructure. Dig common trenches next to roads for water, electrical, and telecommunications.

The massive physical and natural infrastructure damage will require significant planning and investment very likely in the hundreds of billions of dollars. Ukraine will need massive funds to rebuild. These funds will not be generated from the economy at first, so foreign aid will be necessary and the scale of recovery will be enormous, beyond what any one nation can fund. Countries interested in ensuring that Ukraine has a robust future will need to contribute. Other funders may be risk averse. Ukraine will need to directly address concerns about and work to combat corruption, to ensure that funds are spent for their intended purpose. Transparency will be key to building trust with funders, with appropriate metrics to help send the message that donations are going to the intended purpose.

A second challenge includes building support for the several million or more refugees so they can return home. Ukraine will face enormous challenges, including the wholesale destruction of homes, schools, medical facilities, and places of work.

The work for Ukraine should include building capacity to manage and implement recovery. Developing a recovery vision and communicating with funders will be key to recovery.

Understanding and planning for recovery phases to come will leave Ukraine better prepared when that day arrives.

Note

There also is a serious need for key nations and international institutions to initiate forward thinking regarding urgent, longer-term financial contingencies ahead for Ukraine. Having a coordinated assessment process among key institutions and donors will be invaluable. An ongoing international planning process will encourage Ukrainians that their partners will be ready to help them rebuild. 

This forward-thinking core group should include representatives of the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), European Investment Bank (EIB), United Nations Development Program (UNDP), U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), and U.N. World Food Program. It also should include key donors — the United States, European Union (EU), the entire G7, and Ukraine’s government. This group can work with additional institutions and governments to address specific problems as needed and could include working groups

It is essential to coordinate so the rebuilding of Ukraine can begin as soon as circumstances allow. The UNDP has released an initial study describing massive economic costs for Ukraine, with up to 90 percent of the population facing poverty under severe scenarios. Given this danger, the UNDP is exploring the prospects for a large-scale emergency cash transfer program to help meet the needs of Ukraine’s people. Rebuilding Ukraine’s infrastructure will necessitate enormous additional funding. Ukrainian authorities say infrastructure damage already tops $100 billion, and reconstruction costs mount daily with the Russian bombardment. 

It is important to organize experts now to develop agreed-upon needs assessments, contingency plans, and action recommendations for meeting Ukraine’s future needs. Proactive planning and sustained action among Western partners on the economic agenda will be key to achieving a successful outcome.

Bearing in mind the destruction and enormous losses brought upon Ukraine by Russia’s military aggression, the European Union is committed to provide support to the Ukrainian Government for its immediate needs and, once the Russian onslaught has ceased, for the reconstruction of a democratic Ukraine. To that end, the European Council agrees to develop a Ukraine Solidarity Trust Fund and invites its international partners to participate, and calls for preparations to start without delay. It calls on the Commission to continue to provide technical assistance in order to help Ukraine implement necessary reforms.