PUTIN’S MISCALCULATION

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is tragic and shocking. It constitutes an unprovoked attack against a sovereign nation. In revealing the aggressive and expansive ambitions of President Vladimir Putin, this invasion will likely bring about the return of a Europe afflicted by militarized division. Now that Putin has begun the attack, he is likely to proceed with an effort to topple Volodymyr Zelensky’s government and install a puppet regime in Kyiv under the thumb of Moscow. But after the main fight is over (whenever that happens), Russian troops in or around Ukraine will have to remain as an occupation force. They will face resistance not just from Ukrainian soldiers, who will have access to weapons, but from civilian insurgents, who have training in arms as well and who will surely receive supplies (and perhaps more) from U.S. and other intelligence agencies.  The notion that Putin could control Ukraine, in the way that his Kremlin predecessors did in Cold War times, seems improbable.

 Putin’s invasion will only further unify the Ukrainian people and intensify their determination to permanently leave Russia’s coercive sphere of influence. Does Putin really believe that he can install a regime that enjoys legitimacy and the support of Ukrainian citizens? Is he prepared to occupy a country of forty-four million people and use coercion and intimidation to suppress grassroots resistance? Ukraine will not be able to defeat the Russian military. But there is a good chance that Ukrainians will ultimately be able to defeat Russia’s efforts to rule over their country. Putin might be reasserting control over Ukraine in a physical sense, but not in a political and moral sense. When Russians ultimately ask, “Who lost Ukraine?,” the answer will be Putin. By invading Ukraine, Putin might well be overreaching and unwittingly sowing the seeds of the demise of his regime.