POSSIBLE SCENARIO IN UKRAINE NOW
Submitted by christian on Wed, 03/02/2022 - 13:52
- Scorched earth scenario (High Probability): Failing with a rapid manoeuvre to succeed in establishing a pro-Russian government in Ukraine, Putin could change strategy and move to Russia’s traditional practice of scorched earth. Russian troops will try to systematically advance step by step, ignoring their own losses and the loss of civilian lives. Iskander missiles, Buratino flamethrowers and other heavy weapons might be used. In this scenario, there would be endless hostilities, massive destruction of infrastructure, depletion of resources, significant outflow of citizens and a collapse of the economy. The probability of this scenario is high. The Ukrainian economy will suffer significant losses, so this is a war of attrition, a contest to see which of the parties will die first. The West has to prevent this scenario by introducing disruptive sanctions with immediate effect on Russia.
- Prolonged Insurgency (High Probable)) : Ordinary citizens and a regular Ukrainian army can take up arms with the U.S. and European countries providing support. Russia may end up waging a full-fledged counterinsurgency in Ukraine, including urban warfare and airstrikes on populated areas. Any insurgency with reliable supply lines, weapons, equipment and funds, sufficient number of fighters and sanctuary over the border for medical treatment, training, rest and recoup can sustain itself indefinitely. A long-drawn conflict would sap an occupying army’s will to fight, affect its morale and deplete political support for the occupation at home. Ukraine’s geography will benefit any insurgency. Ukraine has borders with Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia. Russian ally Belarus has borders with two NATO countries: Poland in the west and Lithuania in the north. The U.S. and NATO can provide all types of assistance through these long borders. They can also stoke unrest in Belarus by providing covert aid to the opposition of Lukashenko’s regime. Russia has to think twice before chasing insurgents across the border in Poland since such actions could trigger a war with NATO. With the availability of the latest technologies of drones, satellites and thermal imagery, insurgents will find it difficult to escape occupying forces’ reach. The Russians will label the insurgents’ attacks as acts of terrorism while people in the West will applaud them as the actions of freedom fighters. A long drawn insurgency in Ukraine would bleed Russia financially, militarily and morally to a very weak state
- World War III scenario : (Most Threatening) Unable to achieve his goal, Putin could escalate: bombing a nuclear power plant, setting off an explosion at the Chernobyl complex, launching a missile strike at a NATO or EU city, reviving the armed conflict in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Republika Srpska), or launching a nuclear weapon against one or more Ukrainian cities. This scenario is the most threatening for the world, so to prevent it, NATO will have to intervene directly. While this scenario unlikely, its probability is increasing, and it is up to the international community to prevent this from happening. If it is implemented, we will all wake up in a completely different world with a completely different range of problems.
- The Blitzkrieg scenario: (Decreasing Probability) is decreasing with every passing day due to the large-scale and effective resistance of Ukraine that was unexpected to both Putin and the West. Introduction of reserves such as the Kadyrov elite troops or the Belarusian Army will not be able to radically change the situation.
- “Diplomacy”: (Unprobable) The obvious condition of the Ukrainian side will be complete withdrawal of Russian troops from all Ukrainian territory, including those occupied and annexed by Russia in 2014.
- “Rebellion”: (Not likely in the short term): Sanctions may lead to a critical level of dissatisfaction with Putin, which could spawn a revolt from his own army and/or FSB generals, oligarchs, and/or regional leaders . Russia begins to disintegrate: regional leaders negotiate with the security forces and oligarchs to dismantle the mosaic country. Disintegration of Russia is unlikely to happen peacefully, crowds of refugees would flood Ukrainian cities, and nuclear weapons could fall into the hands of new unpredictable leaders. The likelihood of the ‘rebellion’ scenario is also influenced by grassroots social activity in Russia (anti-war protests, soldiers’ refusals to fight, protests in the ‘national’ republics of the federation, etc.), but they will not be able to change anything single-handedly due to their limited scale and the low impact on Putin’s decision-making. Nevertheless, it is an important indicator for other political actors in Russia.
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