THE EUROSCEPTIC LANDSCAPE

The current economic crisis has served to galvanize oppositions to the European Union (EU) as evidenced by the electoral success of Eurosceptic parties such as the United Kingdom Independence Party, the Front National in France and most recently, the Alternative For Germany party.

There are qualitative differences of Euroscepticism which can be subsumed in two categories or forms:

THE PROTEST VOTE IN THE EUROPEAN ELECTIONS

The protest vote in the European elections is not nearly big enough to be labelled a comprehensive rejection of the EU, its political values and its economic crisis management over the five years since the last European elections. Eurosceptics, broadly defined, are projected to win about 130 of the EU legislature’s 751 seats (17.31%). Given that the EU has just gone through the biggest financial shock and recession of its 56-year history, the damage could have been greater.

CROATIA'S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: NOT YET OUT OF THE WOODS

Croatia remains stuck in an unusually drawn out recession. The real GDP is projected to contract for the 6th consecutive year in 2014 (-0/6%). Unemployment has risen to 18 percent . Domestic demand remains depressed as corporations and households focus on reducing excess debt levels accumulated during the boom period in the mid 2000s. Exports and FDI are also feeble, reflecting poor trading partner growth and structural weaknesses. Macroeconomic policies that could revive growth rapidly are beyond reach.

EUROPEAN ELECTIONS VOTE PREDICTIONS

  1. European People's Party (EPP) 212 seats (28.2%)
  2. Socialists & Democrats (S&D) 209 seats (27.8%)
  3. Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE), 63 seats (8.4%)
  4. European United Left/Nordic Green (GUE/NGL) 52 seats (6.9%)
  5. European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) 43 votes (5.7%)
  6. Europe of Freedm and Democracy (EFD) 39 seats (5.2%)
  7. The Greens/European Free Alliance (G/EFA) 38 seats (5.1%)
  8. NI (Non Attached) 95 seats (12.6%)

Note concerning NIs

BUSINESS LOBBYING AGENDA POST ELECTIONS

Post elections business wants the EU to take a different, more outward looking approach to policy-making. The private sector's lobbyng agenda for the next term of the European Parliament and the European Commission until 2019 is the following:

THE INSURGENT PARTIES IN THE NEXT EUROPEAN ELECTIONS

Across the EU, insurgent parties from right and left are poised to cause major upset, finishing at or near the top of their respective national votes. As a result, rejectionist parties look set to send their largest contingent of anti-European MEPs ever to the European parliament.

NATIONAL PARTIES IN EU 28 OUTSIDE THE LOOP

346 national parties (without current MEPs) in EU 28 have published Lists for the next European elections. The majority of them are small parties and they won’t get  enough votes for any MEP to represent them but the European elections provide them nevertheless an opportunity to make their voice heard.

Countries with the most parties include in descending order:

EUROPEAN ELECTIONS: TENTATIVE DISTRIBUTION FORECAST OF VOTES BY COUNTRY AND PARTIES

As it stands now Austria’s 18 seats are divided among 5 parties; Belgium’s 21 seats are divided among 12 parties; Bulgaria’s 17 seats are divided among 6 parties, Croatian’s 11 seats are divided among 6 parties; Cyprus’ 6 seats are divided among 3 parties; Czech Republic’s 21 seats are divided among 6 parties; Denmark’s 13 seats are divided among 5 parties; Estonia’s 6 seats are divided among 4 parties; Finland’s 13 seats are divided among 6 parties; France’s 74 seats are divided among 7 parties; Germany’s 96 seats are divided among 9 parties; Greece’s 21 seats are divided among 7 parties;

POST-EUROPEAN ELECTIONS AND 27 MAY 2014

Turning to the post-election phase, there is no guarantee that the candidate of the European political party that wins most votes in 2014 will automatically become the head of the Commission. Even if the European Parliament settles on a nominee, the European Council might not endorse the EP's choice. It is possible that EU governments could, for example, argue that they considered the result of the European elections when selecting not 'only' the nominee for the President of the Commission but also the contenders for the other prestigious EU jobs.

CONSEQUENCES OF A EUROSCEPTICS SURGE IN THE NEXT EP

According to polls, Eurosceptics are likely to be the strongest political party in four countries: Poland (Law and Justice, 32 percent of votes); Greece (Syriza, 25 percent); Czech Republic (ANO, 25 percent); and the Netherlands (Freedom Party, 17 percent).

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