EUROPEAN ELECTIONS 2014: DANGER AHEAD!

Europe would face regression and paralysis if Eurosceptics and nationalists gain the upper hand in next year’s European Parliament elections. A fourth of parliamentary seats (188) may be taken by extreme and populist parties. This would fundamentally change the nature of policymaking in the Parliament; and the populist radical right MEPs would band together in one or more political groups to rival the big three (the EPP, S&D and ALDE groups).

At the moment, polling points towards hefty wins for populist radical right parties, whose Euroscepticism appeals to voters who have grown weary of ‘ever closer union’ politics. In France a recent poll shows the Front National coming out with 24% ahead of the center right party (UMP) and the Socialist Party (PS). In the United Kingdom, the UK Independent Party is tipped to do well probably being the biggest British Party in the European Parliament. In the Netherlands, the Party of Freedom is also running strongly in the polls. Far right parties in Poland, Austria, Hungary and Bulgaria would also register gains based on current projections.

Because France is allocated a total of 74 members, this could have a big impact on the makeup of the Parliament. If they do well enough, populist radical right MEPs may even be able to in some situations block votes made by the mainstream political groups in the plenary.
A parliamentary group is on the cards too. Both the Front National and the Party of Freedom in the Netherlands have touted a possible alliance and the possibility of forming a political group in the EP along with other smaller parties like Lega Nord in Italy, Vlaams Belang in Belgium, and the Sweden Democrats. With a political group, these MEPs would have much more power to influence policy.

There is one consequence of a populist radical right resurgence and a subsequent formation of a populist radical right group: Being in a group will give the populist radical right the opportunity for more speaking time as a platform to espouse their views to the wider public. It is speaking time that is of real importance for populist radical right MEPs – they tend to focus on giving speeches and asking questions rather than drafting policy. Arguably, it is here where the true power of populism lies – in its ability to weave together narratives, myths, symbols and metaphors and thereby truly shift the terms of political debate.

If extreme and popular parties were to use their extra resources to organize effectively, their ability to wreck the work programme of the European Union, not just the European Parliament would be a disaster. The European Parliament would be unable to act cohesively. Combined with current procedures which leave powers on economic, monetary, social and foreign affairs in the hands of divided national governments, the European Union would simply head towards institutional stagnation and decay- notwithstanding the ‘earthquake’ that a French referendum by the National Front to exit the Euro would cause.