IS THE EURO CRISIS REALLY BEHIND US AS WE'RE TOLD?

The Euro crisis has failed to explode in the last three years, in spite of repeated predictions that it would. Many commentators (and politicians) now rejoice that the problem is solved. While a few of the countries have made steps toward recovery, there are still several that haven't, and, by and large, those that haven't are larger than those that have.

As always with European crises, the summer was a quiet period as everyone did put aside these dire economic issues and went on holiday. But there will be more fireworks after German elections, when tough decisions will be made.

Let's consider the following countries:

Greece: Greece is the worst basket case, and will almost certainly need bailing out again. In spite of a drop in GDP of a full 25% since the start of the crisis, it is STILL expected to run a balance of payments deficit this year. That's worrying. Greece is expected to run a budget deficit of 5.3% of GDP this year. Greece's failure to solve its own problem indicates that the economy is truly a basket case and that new debt is very unlikely to be repaid. Today Greece owes the other eurozone countries and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) more than €245.6 billion money that financial analysts say it will never be able to pay back. Now on top of this, Greece needs more money  as much as € 11 billion euros  for the next two years, and a follow-up program will be necessary, perhaps with a volume of € 10 billion euros, to help the country make the transition to private capital markets.

Cyprus: Cyprus, Greece's little brother, is still descending into the maelstrom following its banking crisis. Judging by the Greek example, there will be further crises here also. Cyprus was granted a € 10 billion bailout.

Portugal: There are increasing concerns that Portugal could need yet another bailout. The country did already receive a € 78 billion euro bailout in 2010. Portugal 's economic woes have not been lost on investors with the yield on the country's benchmark 10-year bonds steadily rising to 7 percent and beyond since the start of September suggesting investors believe the country could in fact need another bailout rather than exiting its current one. As in all other countries, the biggest challenge is to balance between further austerity measures and growth. To find the right balance, Portugal will probably need more time. As a consequence, the discussion on a second bailout package should become the next big thing soon.

Spain: The unemployment rate is now at an all-time high, with 27.16% of the labour force more than 6 million Spaniards, unable to find a job. Most affected are young people below the age of 25, a group which is reaching 55.7% unemployment. The government is mulling over the extension of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and European Union's (EU) rescue facility for its banks, in case it needs a fresh injection of funds past the access deadline. Spain was granted a total of €100 billion in rescue money to prop up its banks and to stop the country slipping into default. However, it has only used €41.4 billion for recapitalization  thus far, and it has until the end of the year to tap into the rest. If Spain is granted an extension, it will allow the country more time to stabilise its banking sector with a cash buffer zone. The breathing space will also come in handy to avoid prolonging the existence of nationalised banks. Spain still faces a number of huge hurdles in order to get its economy back on track.

France: France's public debt is expected to hit nearly €  2 trillion euros  by the end of 2014, or 95.1 percent of GDP. European Union rules require public debt to be no more than 60 percent of GDP or falling towards this ratio. The system is hemorrhaging money, with a deficit expected to hit nearly € 8 billion euros this year.

Slovenia: Slovenia has some major issues that could eventually force it to seek a bailout from the European Central Bank. The nation's economy is in free fall and shows no sign of recovering anytime soon. The government has been forced to borrow more money at relatively high interest rates of around 5% to 8% to stay afloat. It's probably a good bet that Slovenia won't be able to get through this crisis on its own. The state or its banks will eventually need a bailout. While it may look as if things are safe on the surface, the situation could go from bad to worse in a blink of an eye. The faster the EU can control the situation, the better. Slovenia doesn't have to wait to be insolvent to ask for help, it can do so at anytime. If Slovenia waits to go to the ECB when it is in ruins, investors will again associate dismal failure with the eurozone.

Indeed, there remain pockets of economic trouble all around the continent. Spanish banks remain shaky, Italy's new government has reversed austerity measures, the Netherlands can't control its spending; and France remains delusional.

There are two possible routes to the next Euro crisis:

1. An economic crisis in one of the staggering Euro members e.g. France or Italy after the German election
2. A general tightening of credit as confidence in central bank bailouts disappears. In that case, problems in the Eurozone that are now simply chronic will become immediate, as finance for the weak sisters will no longer be available.

One way or another, the Eurozone has not finished with crisis !

For reference, the bailout train has so far made stops in Cyprus, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Latvia, Portgual, Romania, and Spain. In total, approximately € 546.8 billion of Troika funds have been allocated to bailing out nations with the number crossing the € 600 billion threshold if private sector funds and bail-in funds are included. This figure equates to the combined annual budgets of 15 EU countries: Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia and Poland.

However, the bailout has only used some € 482.2 billion, raising questions over the entire process of bailouts.

Past bailouts:

• Ireland: Ireland received a € 67.5 billion
• Latvia: Latvia received € 7.5 billion bailout, of which 4.5 billion euros has been used,
• Hungary: Hungary received € 18.6 billion bailout
• Romania: Romania received a sizeable € 19.6 billion and has been allocated a potential 25.7 billion in funds. .