NEW EU COMMISSION IN FORMATION

Over half of the EU’s 27 member states have now declared who they want to send to be European Commissioner but we don’t yet know which positions they’ll hold. Countries can express a preference among policy areas and, as is traditional, many have said they want their top official in Brussels to be given a major economic portfolio.

But lots of them are going to end up disappointed. President Ursula von der Leyen has a huge amount of power to carve up policy issues and award them to her team. Many of the positions she allocates will be given fancy titles, like Executive Vice-President – or exotic topics like demography. But beware the spin: those crafty honorifics may just serve to disguise a non-job.

What really matters is the positions that wield power and influence. Ruling over one of the EU executive’s directorates-general gives a commissioner control over hundreds of officials who determine EU law. Better still if it’s a portfolio where Brussels has substantive power or a likely political flashpoint.

1. President, Foreign and Security Policy, Competition (antitrust), Economic and Financial Affairs  

The EU’s competition chief has extensive powers to block mergers, fine big companies, and ban state subsidies that distort markets – and, unlike most other EU commissioners, doesn’t need to sign off decisions with governments or MEPs. The portfolio will stay in the spotlight given von der Leyen’s promise of a “new approach” to merger policy.  Will the new competition chief also be given an extra role, such as promoting industrial policy or European strategic autonomy?

Also powerful is the Commissioner entrusted with the EU’s powerful DG ECFIN, which coordinates national economic policies and conducts dreaded forecasts of inflation and growth.

Eight countries have been formally warned by Brussels to temper high deficits, and the new economics commissioner will oversee the – politically painful – tax rises and spending cuts they’ll be required to make.

2. Enlargement, Defense, Industry, Digital are topics that seem guaranteed a high political profile in the coming years.   

Von der Leyen’s political guidelines show a renewed interest in industrial policy, as the bloc needs to rebuild its competitiveness.

A commissioner for defense, promised by von der Leyen in the wake of Russian aggression, will have a high-profile role that will need to have some difficult conversations with the bloc’s largely national militaries.

Guiding the EU’s process for enlarging to cover new members will also be crucial. That commissioner will have to determine if Ukraine and the many other candidates in the queue to join the EU meet detailed and stringent policy criteria.

And though the bloc has already agreed landmark laws to regulate artificial intelligence and digital services, the online economy is likely to continue to offer a challenge to policy makers, for which a digital commissioner will be responsible.

3. Energy, Trade, Climate, Migration, Justice

The EU has substantive powers to negotiate trade agreements on behalf of its members, and impose punitive tariffs on Chinese goods deemed to be dumped on the European market. But its influence may be waning, with slow developments in talks with South America’s Mercosur group and India though there’ll be a high-profile debate about how to respond to protectionism should Trump gain a second presidency.

Under Jean-Claude Juncker’s Commission, which ran up until 2019, Energy Commissioner meant something: leading the Clean Energy Act was a huge responsibility, and hugely boosted the career of Slovakia’s Maroš Šefčovič.

Energy policy had its moments under the last mandate, such as when the 2022 Russian invasion disrupted gas supplies. But incumbent Kadri Simson has been relatively anonymous; to be seen if her successor will elevate the profile.

On climate change, the EU still needs to implement some fairly controversial ideas from the Green Deal but the centre-right European People’s Party is clearly having second thoughts, as the mood shifts toward supporting clean industry.

Migration will continue to be a totemically important issue for the right, but the flagship policy has just been passed, and there’s a lack of real EU power.

The Justice portfolio is a mixed bag including data privacy and consumer protection. But, with concerns about media freedom and judicial independence on the rise, this portfolio could come to set a bold new direction in protecting the rule of law across the bloc.

4. Agriculture, Cohesion, Budget, Neighbourhood

These portfolios carry plenty of cash, but not much power. They’re largely focused on implementing existing, if expensive, programmes: cohesion and agriculture together account for roughly two-thirds of the EU’s €170 billion-a-year spending – but the policy is already set by EU lawmakers. Their moment of glory will come in mid-2025, when the Commission has to present a new proposal on the long-term future of the EU budget – and again if fractious farmers flare up again. Likewise, don’t expect a huge role for the official covering countries in the EU’s neighbourhood, particularly if they compete with colleagues responsible for foreign policy, enlargement and the Mediterranean.

5. Home Affairs, Environment, Tax, Financial Services, Health and Food Safety, Employment and Social Rights, Transport, Fisheries

The job description of these posts sounds amazing and very ministerial except no one is actually sitting in a national government. Many big countries will be offered these portfolios, and might even be pleased with the prospect of a job that at least sounds important. Don’t be deceived: the EU competence in these areas is either non-existent or politically unattractive. Food safety, anyone?

Many covet having power over issues such as financial services and social policy, and those portfolios are not worth nothing  but neither has had much political attention over the last mandate, and that’s likely to continue.

EU rules mean fiscal proposals are usually blocked by national vetoes – so the Commission’s tax and customs union portfolio would only be tempting for politicians who want to put “technical reforms to value-added tax” atop their CV.

That said, the right personality can get some good exposure from those roles, or use it as the springboard for something bigger.

6. Housing, demography, foresight, the Mediterranean and “the EU way of life” 

The recipients will be effusively grateful until they realise what their evocative title actually means, which is almost certainly nothing.

That seems set to continue in her next term, where she’s promised commissioners responsible for housing, which is a major and totemic policy issue that’s nothing to do with the EU, and for the Mediterranean, which is a sea.

7. Crisis Management, International Cooperation, Research, Interinstitutional Relations, Human Resources, Education and Culture

These are the least desirable portfolios, mostly dumped on smaller countries or clumped together with something more interesting.

Those involved in crisis management or international cooperation will get good air miles and Instagram content, but not much else.

The EU’s Research commissioner manages the Horizon Europe programme, but its budget is way less than cohesion funds or farm subsidies, and offers little in the way of policy development.

Likewise, education, youth and culture offers the glamour of association with the EU’s Erasmus student exchange scheme, but little in the way of substance.

Whoever gets told to deal with human resources or managing interinstitutional relations with the European Parliament and Council will find a purely inward looking role, with little glamour.

Austria

Federal Chancellor Karl Nehammer nominated current Finance Minister Magnus Brunner as the next Austrian commissioner. Brunner is an experienced government politician with high competence in financial, economic and competition policy at national and European level.

Belgium

Belgium is attempting to form its own government from a likely coalition of five parties. Top positions, including EU commissioner, will likely be agreed as part of those talks. The largest party, the conservative New Flemish Alliance (N-VA), has already used most of its leverage to claim the premiership, so the EU role could go to a junior partner—most likely the centrist Reformist Movement (MR), according to sources familiar with the coalition talks. Potential candidates from MR include incumbent commissioner Didier Reynders and Sophie Wilmès, a former Prime Minister who’s now an MEP. If the pick goes to the Flemish socialist party Vooruit, the likely name would be Belgian Health Minister Frank Vandenbroucke. 

Bulgaria

Bulgaria is in political crisis after the latest attempt to form a minority government led by the centre-right GERB party failed earlier this month. That brings Bulgaria closer to another round of elections, pushing discussions over EU commissioners or their portfolios off the table. Iliana Ivanova is Bulgaria's current commissioner for innovation, research, culture, education and youth.

Croatia

Current Commission Vice-President Dubravka Šuica has been nominated to stay in post. She turned down an opportunity to serve as an MEP after June elections, instead choosing to stay on as commissioner for Democracy and Demography. 

Cyprus

The candidate is not known, and incumbent commissioner Stella Kyriakides has announced she is not coming back. 

Czechia

Prime Minister Petr Fiala announced that his government “unanimously agreed” on Industry and Trade Minister Jozef Síkela as the Czech commissioner candidate. Síkela is well-known in Brussels for his key role during the Czech presidency, when he gained agreement on a gas price cap to reduce dependency on Russian fossil fuels, after famously saying he’d “convene as many Energy Council meetings as necessary.”

Denmark

It might be socialist Dan Jørgensen, minister for global climate policy and development. Until 2013, he was vice-chair of the European Parliament's Environment Committee.

Estonia

The European Council already nominated Prime Minister Kaja Kallas to serve as the EU’s top diplomat, formally known as the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, though the appointment is subject to confirmation by the European Parliament.

Finland

Prime Minister Petteri Orpo confirmed in June that Finland's candidate for Commissioner is MEP Henna Virkkunen. Virkkunen joined the European Parliament in 2014 after serving in various Finnish government roles, including as Minister of Education, Public Administration, and Transport. As an MEP, Virkunnen has been active on issues related to transport, energy, and digital matters.

France

Incumbent Thierry Breton will again be France's candidate for commissioner. Political instability in France, and a change of prime minister, could still lead to a new name being put forward.  

Germany

Appointed by EU leaders and elected in a secret vote by lawmakers in the European Parliament, Ursula von der Leyen is the first member of the College confirmed officially, and will serve as President.

Greece

Greece’s Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has announced Apostolos Tzitzikostas as its candidate for commissioner. He's Governor of Central Macedonia, and was previously President of the EU's Committee of the Regions.  Mitsotakis played an essential role in securing a second term for von der Leyen, and may expect a key portfolio in return. 

Hungary

Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has said he’ll reappoint current EU Commissioner Oliver Varhelyi. 

Ireland

Michael McGrath is the Irish government's nominee for commissioner. He was Minister for Finance from December 2022 to June 2024, and previously Minister for Public Expenditure. McGrath helped create Ireland’s sovereign wealth fund, which uses the country's corporate tax windfall to lower college fees, energy bills and childcare costs. 

Italy

One name often mentioned is Europe Minister Raffaele Fitto, currently responsible for Italy’s recovery and resilience fund. He’s former chair of the right-wing ECR group, and Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni may feel his popularity and recognition among MEPs would mean his confirmation is in the bag. If not, it could be diplomat and current spy chief Elisabetta Belloni.  

Latvia

Latvia has again chosen to send the same person to Brussels, Commission Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis, currently responsible for trade and economics.  

Lithuania

Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis is the likely candidate. He has public support from Manfred Weber, leader of the EU-wide centre-right political group the EPP. However, he would need the support of the both Lithuania's parliament and its president Gitanas Nausėda, who has criticised the choice. 

Luxembourg

Two names are being floated, but only one is promised by the prime minister. Under the coalition agreement between the Christian Social Party (CSV) and the Democratic Party (DP), MEP Christophe Hansen would be the official choice to replace Luxembourg’s current Commissioner for Employment and Social Affairs, Nicolas Schmit - the socialists' top candidate for the recent EU elections.   Hansen has experience in European Parliament committees on international trade, employment and social affairs, transport and tourism.  

Malta

Prime Minister Robert Abela has confirmed Malta’s pick for the European Commission as Glenn Micallef. He is the former chief of staff to the PM and will be the first non-politician to become Malta’s commissioner. In an interview in Maltese media where he confirmed the choice, Abela explained that he wanted to avoid choosing someone from his government as “the country needs focused work in ministries.” Abela had previously picked Health Minister Chris Fearne, but Fearne is now standing trial over a corruption scandal involving the privatisation of hospitals. After the initial judicial decision, Fearne withdrew his EU candidacy, though maintains his innocence.

Netherlands

Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof opted for the safe route and decided to reappoint his current Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra. This gives the Netherlands a strong candidate for a substantial portfolio.   

Poland

Foreign minister Radosław Sikorski was previously rumoured to be seeking a Brussels top job. But the main diplomatic slot has been handed to Kallas, and it’s not clear if he’d quit his government role for a lesser position such as defence commissioner.  Some media reports have also tipped Piotr Serafin for a post linked to energy policy. Serafin is currently Poland’s ambassador to the EU, and was previously chief of staff to Prime Minister Donald Tusk when he headed the European Council. 

Portugal

Miguel Poiares Maduro, a former regional development minister, is tipped to be Portugal's next choice for a research, innovation and science commissioner - a post the country has held in the past.  Poiares Maduro is linked to the centre-right PSD, which is part of von der Leyen's European People's Party. 

Romania

President Klaus Iohannis was previously tipped as a candidate to head the European Commission, and also put himself forward for the top job at NATO. But it’s unclear if he’d leave Bucharest for a lesser position, given that could precipitate early elections.  

Other names thrown around include MEPs Siegfried Mureşan, who was a candidate for commissioner in 2019, and Mihai Tudose, a powerful politician in Tulcea County. Picking Tudose would allow von der Leyen to bolster representation of the centre-left in her college – which may prove critical as she seeks to court the votes of the Parliament’s 136 socialists in the autumn. Ciolacu, himself facing elections in November, may seek to argue that, as the last two Romanian commissioners were women, he only needs to name a man.  

Slovakia

President Peter Pelligrini has confirmed he’ll reappoint Maroš Šefčovič for a fourth term as commissioner. Since joining the Commission, Šefčovič, a career diplomat who served as Slovakia’s EU ambassador, has taken on whatever duties have been thrown at him, ranging from human resources and digital policy to climate change and Brexit.  

Slovenia

Tomaž Vesel, previously president of the national Court of Audit, will be Slovenia's choice. He was announced as candidate by Prime Minister Robert Golob before the EU elections.  

Spain

Teresa Ribera, one of the most influential ministers in Pedro Sánchez's government, is the official candidate for a place in the College of Commissioners - and Madrid wants something in return for giving up such a big beast. Teresa Ribera was previously responsible for EU electricity market reform. 

Sweden

Jessika Roswall will become Sweden's first centre-right EU commissioner after less than two years as minister for EU affairs and Nordic cooperation, the government has announced. A law graduate, Roswall has also been a member of parliament, where she worked on tax and consumer policy issues. 

Summary

Austria: Magnus Brunner

Belgium: Didier Reynders, Sophie Wilmès, Frank Vandenbroucke

Bulgaria: Iliana Ivanova, current commissioner for innovation, research, culture, education and youth?

Croatia: Dubravka Šuica has been nominated to stay in post as commissioner for Democracy and Demography. 

Cyprus: The candidate is not known, and incumbent commissioner Stella Kyriakides has announced she is not coming back. 

Czechia: Jozef Síkela.

Denmark: Dan Jørgensen

Estonia: Kaja Kallas 

Finland: Henna Virkkunen

France: Thierry Breton 

Germany: Ursula von der Leyen 

Greece: Apostolos Tzitzikostas

Hungary: Oliver Varhelyi 

Ireland: Michael McGrath

Italy: Raffaele Fitto, or Elisabetta Belloni 

Latvia: Valdis Dombrovskis 

Lithuania: Gabrielius Landsbergis 

Luxembourg: Christophe Hansen 

Malta: Glenn Micallef.

Netherlands: Wopke Hoekstra  

Poland:  Radosław Sikorski or Piotr Serafin

Portugal: Miguel Poiares Maduro 

Romania: Siegfried Mureşan or Mihai Tudose 

Slovakia: Maroš Šefčovič 

Slovenia: Tomaž Vesel 

Spain: Teresa Ribera 

Sweden: Jessika Roswall