LEVEL OF INFLUENCE IN THE NEXT EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT

Austria

Latest projections show an increase in the size of the FPÖ delegation (ID group) in the next European Parliament, to the detriment of the Austrian representation within the EPP and, to a lesser extent, S&D groups. These developments will be challenging for Austrian influence in the next European Parliament, as the ID group has been so far subject to a “cordon sanitaire”, and thus unable to access leadership positions in the EP or to take on important files.

Top 3 Parties: FPÖ (27.8%), SPÖ (23.1%), ÖVP (21.9%)

Belgium

According to the latest projections, Belgian representation in the next European Parliament is likely to remain highly fragmented across the different political groups, which has not prevented Belgians from gaining significant influence on key policy areas in the past. Notably, Belgian representation is likely to increase within The Left, and within the S&D group. Belgian influence is likely to be challenged in the next term, as the strong Belgian representation in left-wing groups clashes with the right-wing trend observed in other countries.

Top 3 parties: VB (15.4%); N-VA (12.1%) PVDA (12.1%)

Bulgaria

Bulgarians are set to keep strong representation in the main EP groups, especially the EPP, but also the Renew group (especially if the governing party We Continue the Change joins the centrist family. Their central positions could provide the two governing parties with significant influence in the next European Parliament. Yet, Bulgarians could lose significant ground within the S&D group, while there is a certain degree of polarization within the Bulgarian political scene, with the rise of the Revival party (ID group).

Top 4 Parties: GERB (27.4%), PP/DB (16.2%), V (15.0%), DPS (14.6%)

Croatia

Latest projections point to an increasingly right-wing Croatian representation in the European Parliament, which is in line with the overall trends for EP elections. The Croatians are likely to remain well-represented in the EPP, which might end up as the pivotal group in the next European Parliament. Yet, other Croatian parties could lose ground in the other centrist groups, while more fringe forces to the left and right wing part of the political spectrum gain momentum. As new Croatian parties are set to join the European Parliament, it will be key for the future Croatian MEPs to build strong ties with other national groups in order to compensate for the likely small size of their delegations.

Top 4 Parties: HDZ (32.0%), SDP (25.1%), M (11.1%), DP (9.7%)

Cyprus

Given the limited number of seats, the political composition of the Cypriot national group is likely to remain relatively stable despite the elections, thus maintaining their current representation in the S&D, The Left, and EPP groups. While Cypriot influence might improve in the next European Parliament, most Cypriot MEPs will be facing an uphill battle as their left-leaning views are likely to clash with the rising right-wing influence in the European Parliament as a whole. In order to overcome this challenge, Cypriot MEPs will need to build stronger networks with like-minded delegations across the groups to enhance their influence.

Top 4 Parties: AKEL (27.8%), DISY (25.7%), ELAM (17.4%), DIKO (9.7%)

Czech Republic

According to the latest projections, the political composition of the Czech delegation in the European Parliament is likely to remain relatively stable, although their numbers in Renew are likely to increase substantially. This is likely to pose a significant headache for the Renew family as it finds itself at odds with the more national-conservative platform of ANO 2011.Leading governing party ODS is also facing issues of its own, especially since their approach to several topics, including rule of law and institutional issues, tends to clash with the prevailing views within the ECR group. If Fidesz joins ECR, their positions could become even more minoritarian. 

Top 4 Parties: ANO (31.6%), ODS (14.7%), Pirati (10.8%), SPD (9.1%)

Denmark

Due to the high level of fragmentation of the Danish political scene, the political composition of the Danish delegation in the EP is not set to change drastically in the next European Parliament. Danish representation in the S&D group is likely to remain strong, while the Danish are also likely to gain ground in the increasingly pivotal EPP group. According to the latest polls, Danish Renew parties are struggling the most at the moment. Notably, the Danish political make-up is one of the most left-leaning, and groups with Danish presence, such as S&D and Renew, are likely to lose some influence in the next EP. Yet, Danish MEPs, similarly to other Nordic delegations, aren’t the most keen on strictly following their groups’ lines and tend to build ties across political groups. This more “independent” attitude is likely to be a key asset in an increasingly fragmented European Parliament.

Top 4 Parties: A (19.4%), I (15.2%), F (13.8%, AE (10.1%)

Estonia

When looking at the next term, the latest projections show that Estonian MEPs are still likely to remain concentrated in the more influential centrist groups. Compared to the current EP, Estonian representation is likely to increase in the pivotal EPP group, while Estonian parties from the Renew and S&D groups are set to lose ground. Regardless of the electoral changes, we expect Estonians to remain engaged with the topics of key strategic interest for the small Baltic country, such as foreign affairs and digital policy. 

Top 5 Parties: I (23.9%), R (18.0%), SDE (16.3%), EKRE(15.1), K (10.9%)

Finland

Finnish MEPs have a consolidated tradition of strong influence in the European Parliament, underscored by their engagement with legislative files. This is unlikely to change due to the upcoming EP elections. In this regard, the political trends in Finland are somewhat in line with the broader trends in Europe, as there will be e gains for the EPP and ECR parties, alongside the losses for the Renew and Greens/EFA parties. Finnish representation within the S&D group is also likely to increase substantially within the next European Parliament. The Finns are likely to play a key role especially in the two largest EP groups, EPP and S&D.

Top 4 Parties: SDP (23.3%), KOK (20.4%), PS (16.0%), KESK (11.9%)

France

French influence is unlikely to improve in the next European Parliament, as the likely increased numbers of right-wing nationalists from Zemmour’s and Le Pen’s parties would not automatically translate into increased access to key legislative and leadership positions in the European Parliament. As for Macron’s party, Ensemble it is likely to keep the (de jure or de facto) leadership of the key Renew group and therefore will continue playing a critical role in coalition-building in the next European Parliament. However, in terms of numbers and coalition-building potential, the influence of the centrist family Renew is likely to diminish in the next legislative term. 

Top 3 Parties: RN (30%), EN (19%), PS (14%)

Germany

The German political scene is becoming more fragmented and polarized, which could impact on the German influence in the next European Parliament. Nevertheless, due the big size of the German delegation in the European Parliament, the more moderate factions will retain significant influence in their respective groups, and in some cases, even these groups' leadership. This is the case of German CDU/CSU, which is likely to remain the biggest in the pivotal EPP group. Germans are also likely to keep the de-facto leadership of Greens/EFA group, although the group will probably have a smaller weight in the next EP. While shrinking slightly, the German delegations in S&D and Renew will be among the largest ones, which will likely be translated into key committee or bureau positions.

Top 4 Parties: CDU/CSU (30.6%), AfD (16.0%), SPD (15.8%), Grüne (13.1%)

Greece 

Greek representation within the “traditional” EPP and S&D groups is likely to increase after the elections in June, possibly providing Greek representatives with more access to key roles in the European Parliament. With governing party New Democracy polling high in latest surveys, their centre-right MEPs will try to leverage their strong position in the EPP to gain more access to reports and leadership positions. Importantly, the Greek political scene remains highly fragmented, as new parties are fighting to overcome the threshold to gain a representative in the next European Parliament. The influence of the more radical parties might be limited due to their small size, a trend that is further exacerbated by the latest split within the left-wing camp .

Top 4 Parties: ND (34.8%), SYRIZA (15.0%), PASOK (12.9%) EL (8.7%)

Hungary

The Hungarian political scene is still dominated by Orban’s Fidesz party, which has a big impact on the overall statistics on Hungarian influence at the EU level. The governing party will not be able to have much clout in the European Parliament without a political affiliation. Although the ID group would warmly welcome Orban, joining the ECR group could help Fidesz regain part of the influence that they lost when leaving the EPP. As for the opposition parties, their representation is likely to remain relatively small due to the current level of fragmentation. The party Our Homeland Movement (which is more right-wing than Fidesz) might also gain a couple of seats, thus increasing the share of Hungarian MEPs sitting to the fringes of the political spectrum.

Top 3 Parties: Fidesz (41.6%, Tisza (20.5%), DK 15.1%)

Ireland

Irish representation in the next EP is set to change to a substantial degree. While the outcome of the Irish EP elections is notoriously hard to predict due to the complex electoral system, latest polls show that the voters are turning more towards the left-wing parties, and especially Sinn Fein (The Left). This would come to the detriment of the Irish representation within pivotal groups such as the EPP, and to a lesser extent, Renew. The Irish could leverage their stronger positions in The Left (they could be one of the largest delegations if independents are included) to gain more visibility in the Parliament, although, due to the negative Parliamentary arithmetic, stronger ties with the more moderate groups would be necessary in order to exert substantial influence.

Top 3 Parties: SF (24.4%), FG (21.4%), FF (16.8%)

Italy

By taking over the ECR group, Fratelli d’Italia could exert more influence compared to the winners of the previous EP elections in Italy (Lega). Also due to the likely active role of the Italian government during the top posts negotiations, the Italians in ECR could start the next term with a strong footing. Yet, the ECR group is not the most united, and cooperation with the EPP will remain difficult due Polish domestic politics, not to mention the possibility of Fidesz joining ECR. The Italians are also competing to become the largest delegation within the S&D family, which is possible according to current polls. This would provide the Italian PD with an edge with regards to leadership positions within the next European Parliament. Finally, despite their polling the 5 Star Movement MEPs are still lacking a political affiliation in the European Parliament, which drastically diminishes their chances of influencing EU policies. 

Top 4 Parties: FdI (27.5%), PD (19.9%), M5S (16.1%), Lega (8.2%)

Latvia

Latvians have been able to exert a substantial level of influence (proportionally speaking) despite the high level of fragmentation of the Latvian political scene. The outlook for the next legislative mandate is even more challenging, as the few Latvian representatives are set to be spread out across the political spectrum. Furthermore, new Latvian parties which are currently unaffiliated are set to gain seats in June. Their choices when it comes to the European political families to join will have an impact on the general Latvian influence on the key policy debates taking place in the European Parliament.

Top 5 Parties: NA (14.5%), JV (12.7%), ZZS (11.6%), P (11.5%) LPV (10.2%)

Lithuania

The Lithuanian political scene is likely to remain highly fragmented in the near future, thus affecting their influence in the European Parliament. Interestingly, Lithuanian polls show an opposite trend compared to the rest of Europe, as left-leaning parties gain ground to the detriment of the centre-right bloc. Therefore, we are likely to see an increased Lithuanian representation in groups such as the Greens/EFA and S&D inside a more right-leaning European Parliament. While this is likely to be a challenge for the influence of Lithuanians, the Lithuanian parties will try to leverage their stronger positions in left-leaning groups to access “heavier” legislative reports and key leadership positions. 

Top 4 Parties: LSDP (21.0%), DSVL (17.2%), LVZS (14.1%) TS-LKD (13.5%)

Luxembourg

Looking ahead, electoral trends suggest that Luxembourgish influence is likely to remain relatively strong in the next European Parliament as well. In fact, the small country defies the trend of political polarisation observed across the continent, as Luxembourgish voters are sticking to the traditional political forces, such as the EPP, Renew and S&D. Currently, the party of former Commission President Juncker CSV (EPP) enjoys the strongest momentum after winning the national elections last fall. Due to their strong representation in the centrist groups, Luxembourgish MEPs are likely to keep punching above their weight in the next Parliament, both in terms of leadership and legislative positions.

Top 3 Parties: CSV (19.2%), LSAP (18.9%), DP (18.7%)

Malta

The Maltese political scene is rather stable, which tends to have a positive impact on the Maltese influence at the EU level. One of the key questions is whether Maltese MEP Roberta Metsola will be able to retain its leadership of the legislative institution. A second mandate will depend on the negotiations on the political leadership of the EU institutions. While according to the current projections, the EPP is likely to be in a relatively strong position in the next political mandate, the centre-right political family won’t be able to claim all leadership positions for itself. Regardless of the outcome of such a process, we expect Maltese MEPs to be able to leverage their positions within the key EPP and S&D groups to keep punching above their weight when influencing decisions in the next European Parliament.

Top 2 Parties (PL: 53%), PN (42.2%)

Netherlands

The increasing volatility of the Dutch political spectrum will be a key challenge in the future. Current projections show that Dutch representation within key groups such as the S&D and Renew will diminish, while a significant component of the future Dutch EP delegation will be concentrated in the ID group, which has been so far isolated by the other political families within the European Parliament. While the Dutch might retain a significant representation within the EPP group due to the rise of new parties, such Omtzigt’s NSC and farmers’ BBB, this would likely involve a significant turnover, with many newcomers joining the EPP ranks. 

Top 3 Parties: PVV (30.8%), PvdA/GL (16.7%), VVD (11.3%)

Poland

TPolish influence in the next European Parliament might increase, as the Polish are set to get one of the largest delegations within the pivotal EPP group, while their representation in the centrist Renew group is also set to increase. Yet, a significant share of the Polish seats are likely to be allocated to parties to the right of the EPP group. Law and Justice is likely to face a difficult situation, as it is likely to lose the leadership of the ECR group and be seen as an obstacle to EPP-ECR cooperation. Also, in terms of alliances, involving Orban’s Fidesz in ECR might provide PiS with a close partner on issues such as civil liberties, rule of law, the status of Visegrad bloc in the EU, etc. However, in terms of optics, Fidesz' positions on Ukraine remain very unpopular among the Polish public, not to mention that this would further diminish any chances of a closer cooperation between the EPP and ECR groups.

Top 4 Parties: PiS (32.4%), KO (32.4%), PL2050/PSL (12.6%), KON (9.8%)

Portugal

Portuguese MEPs might be able to maintain their strong influence in the next European Parliament. The Portuguese PSD and PS are likely to keep their strong numbers within the EPP and S&D groups, while the Portuguese representation within the Renew family is also likely to increase. While there are signs of polarisation within the Portuguese political scene, the rise of right-wing Chega is so far compensated by the losses faced by the parties to the very left of the political spectrum, especially the Communists. Similarly to other rising nationalist parties, Chega’s association with the ID group, which has been subject so far to a “cordon sanitaire” by the other political groups, diminishes their chances of exerting significant influence in the next European Parliament.

Top 3 Parties: AD (29.1%), PS (29.0%), CH (18.4%)

Romania

Romanian delegations within the pivotal EPP and Renew groups are set to shrink, while new right-wing parties would gain substantial ground. While right-wing party AUR aims to join the ECR group, they are not compatible with Fidesz, which could leave them sidelined in the next European Parliament. Yet, also due to the substantial size of the country, the Romanian delegations within EPP and S&D would remain among the biggest in the respective groups, thus allowing Romanians to keep accessing key positions and files in the European Parliament.

Top 4 Parties: PSD (30.2%), PNL (20.1%), AUR (19.5%), USR (11.9%)

Slovakia

The outlook for Slovak influence in the next European Parliament is likely to remain negative, due to the fragmentation of the Slovak political scene, as well as the weak Slovak representation within the most influential political families. While the Slovak Renew delegation might become stronger due to the strong polling of Progressive Slovakia, Slovaks remain under-represented within the EPP family, as well as the S&D group. Both SMER and Hlas are currently suspended from the Socialist family, which would put these MEPs in the unaffiliated group of policy-makers. Without a political group, MEPs cannot get leadership positions or become legislators on Parliamentary files. Therefore, it is likely that these two parties will negotiate with the S&D family after the elections to re-join their ranks, but SMER would also need to moderate their positions on sensitive issues in order to justify their re-admission.

Top 3 Parties: PS (21.6%), SMER (21.4%), HLAS (16.2%)

Slovenia

In the next European Parliament, Slovenian MEPs are still likely to be concentrated in the main political groups, especially Renew Europe and the EPP. While fringe forces to the very right of the political spectrum are rising across Europe, Slovenia hasn’t been yet touched by the right-wing nationalist wave. In a way, this could be an opportunity for Slovenians to increase their influence in the next European Parliament, as they could leverage their positions within the centrist groups to gain more clout on key decisions in the legislative term.

Top 3 Parties: SDS (31.7%), GS (23.7%), SD (10.8)

Spain

Due to the declining popularity of Ciudadanos, Spaniards will lose most of their representation in Macron's Renew, where they are currently one of the largest delegations, thus losing the opportunity to influence the direction of the pivotal centrist group. However, the Spanish political scene remains comparatively cohesive, as PP and PSOE are leading by far in the polls for European elections in Spain. Although they are facing a few losses, the PSOE delegation is likely to remain one of the largest within the S&D group and to retain significant influence inside the centre-left family. Importantly, the Spanish delegation in the pivotal EPP is likely to become the second largest in the group, and one of the largest in the European Parliament as a whole. Therefore, we can expect an increase of the influence of the Spanish in the next European Parliament. 

Top 4 Parties: PP (35.9%), PSOE (30.1%), Vox (11.4%), Sumor (8.7%)

Sweden

The upcoming elections are likely to bring significant changes to the political composition of the Swedish representation in the European Parliament. Due to the increasing popularity of the Swedish Social Democrats, the Swedish are likely to get a stronger voice within the key S&D family after the elections. Similarly, Swedish right-wing party SD is likely to gain ground in June. They might gain more space for maneuver if the ECR will be able to leverage its likely new Italian leadership to establish a better working relationship with the EPP on specific policy areas. On the flip side, Swedish parties from EPP and Renew are set to lose ground, thus diminishing the Swedish influence in these pivotal groups. 

Top 3 Parties: S (33.8%), SD (21.5%), M (18.9%)