THE CASE OF INDIA’S REFUSAL TO CONDEMN RUSSIAN AGGRESSION

The case of India’s refusal to condemn Russian aggression reflects New Delhi’s reliance on its Cold War ally for energy, weapons and support in conflicts with neighbors.

In the past, India depended on Soviet support and its veto power in the Security Council in its dispute over Kashmir with its longtime rival Pakistan.

The war in Ukraine not only adds to challenges faced by New Delhi in Kashmir but also along its restive mountain frontier with China. Both Pakistan and China are seen to be on the Russian side, and India believes Moscow has leverage to change Beijing’s hard stance on the border issue

India continues to be highly reliant in Russian weapons and is in the middle of a war with China over a disputed frontier.

India and Russia have set a target of $30 billion in bilateral trade by the end of 2025. India is also dependent on Russian oil and gas. It imported 1.8 million tons of thermal coal from Russia in 2021, and accounts for about 0.2% of Russia’s natural gas exports. State-run Gas Authority of India Limited has a 20-year deal with Russia’s Gazprom for 2.5 million tons of liquefied natural gas a year, which started in 2018.

Modi and Putin met last year to discuss defense and trade relations, and signed an agreement to extend their military technology cooperation for the next decade.

India’s acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems, which it considers to be critical in countering China, could also prove to be an irritant in Indo-U.S. ties. The S-400 is a sophisticated surface-to-air defense system and is expected to give India strategic deterrence against rivals China and Pakistan.

New Delhi has sought support from Washington and its allies in confronting China, a common ground for the Indo-Pacific security alliance known as “the Quad” that also includes Australia and Japan. And India has been diversifying its weapons purchases with U.S. equipment as well. During the Donald Trump presidency, the U.S. and India concluded defense deals worth over $3 billion. Bilateral defense trade increased from near zero in 2008 to $15 billion in 2019.

As the Ukraine crisis deepens, the real problem for India is how it navigates international sanctions against Russia. The missile system deal with Moscow has put India at risk of U.S. sanctions, after Washington asked its partners to stay away from Russian military equipment. The problem for India has just begun. The urgent need for it is to break out of dependence on the Russian weapons.