POSSIBLE OUTCOMES FOR UKRAINE AND WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN

Many analysts and strategists believe it is only a matter of time before Ukraine is overwhelmed by Moscow’s military might. What comes next for Ukraine could be bleak, these experts say, with many expecting a long and drawn-out conflict, noting that even in the most positive scenario — that Russia withdraws its troops and Ukraine remains a sovereign nation — Europe is unlikely to return to the pre-war status quo.

Possible outcomes for Ukraine and what might happen

1. Patchy control

It’s widely expected that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to install a pro-Russian regime in Kyiv. Russia gains  a patchy control of eastern Ukraine, up to the Dnipro River and  captures the capital Kyiv after a protracted siege, and establishes a Russian-backed puppet government. A rump Ukrainian state is led from Lviv, with the semi-exiled government likely to receive heavy western support. There is a flow of 5 to 10 million people from Ukraine to Western Europe. NATO provides significant military assistance to the western Ukrainian state and military materials and equipment to support insurgency in eastern Ukraine. But this can lead to the risk of airborne clashes between Russian and NATO aircraft.

2. Purge and partition?

There is some kind of partitioning of the country, particularly as Russia becomes firmly entrenched in eastern Ukraine  particularly in the Donbas region where it recognized the independence of two pro-Russian republics ahead of its invasion of the wider country. Moscow has indicated that it is aiming at the complete military conquest of Ukraine followed by a partition and a massive purge of the civilian population. Putin’s apparent objective is to eradicate all vestiges of Ukrainian identity while condemning the country to a grim future as a military dictatorship locked firmly inside a new Russian Empire. This nightmarish vision tallies closely with Putin’s own stated objectives for the current military campaign along with his long record of public contempt and animosity towards Ukrainian statehood.

3. Insurgency

Ukrainians continue to fight against any puppet regime, with the conflict descending into an insurgency with those Ukrainians left in the country attempting to topple any such regime by any means available. Russia is likely to face a long, drawn-out, pricey and painful occupation of Ukraine. Ukrainians will resist long and hard even if the formal military battles end. And news 24/7 and the internet will expose Putin’s brutality for all to see. There might be a quagmire where there is no easy solution for what would likely be a heavily-destroyed Ukraine, or for Russia if an insurgency continued long term. Russia’s victory in Ukraine would be a victory not worth winning because so much is lost to achieve it. A Ukrainian insurgency could force a significant, sustained human and financial toll on Russia as it would be forced to devote far more of its resources over a much longer period of time than it had anticipated. In the meantime, NATO countries would likely provide covert but very robust defensive assistance to the Ukrainian resistance. The conflict drains Moscow’s coffers and resolve, ultimately forcing a withdrawal after much violence and death. In this scenario, Russia would realize it has once again fought an unwinnable war, the proverbial quagmire that has trapped many powerful states through history. While this scenario might appear positive for Ukraine, with Russia becoming a pariah state at a global level and withdrawing after a costly invasion, Ukraine would be “devastated” in the process.

4. NATO vs. Russia

Countries on the EU’s (and NATO’s) eastern flank like Poland, Romania and the Baltic states, all of which have seen their NATO deployments bolstered in recent weeks, are extremely nervous about the potential for conflict to spill over into their own territories. If Russia prevails in Ukraine a new “Iron Curtain” would descend on Eastern Europe, creating two opposing geopolitical blocs reminiscent of those in the Cold War — the EU (and NATO nations) on one side of a potentially militarized border and Ukraine and other countries in Russia’s political orbit (such as Belarus and Moldova) on the other. Such a situation is a tinderbox in Europe. It’s a “non-starter” for the West to send troops to fight alongside Ukrainians or to implement a no-fly zone over Ukraine because that leads to direct confrontation between NATO and Russian troops and accordingly risks World War III. Anything short of that is fair game: sending fighter jets and other advanced weapons systems to the Ukrainians, providing Ukraine with real time intelligence on the disposition of Russian forces, and taking economic measures without limitation to destroy the Russian economy. But Putin still perceives this kind of help “as acts of war taken by the United States and NATO allies against Russia, meriting retaliation. Russia may therefore resort to more indirect attacks including cyberattacks against critical infrastructure, disinformation campaigns and even the possible sanctioning of terrorism in and against NATO countries. It remains highly unlikely Russia would launch direct military attacks against NATO forces, given that’s understood by NATO to be a tripwire for a broader war ... but support for Chechen terrorist attacks into frontline NATO states delivering all these weapons? That’s another matter. NATO would be unlikely to respond directly with military strikes against a nuclear power; the only way to prepare is greater intelligence efforts to prevent or at least blunt the effectiveness of the efforts. Strategists based in Eastern Europe are under no illusion as to whether NATO could get dragged in to the conflict.

5. A miracle?

The unequivocal withdrawal of Russian armed forces from Ukraine would be best possible outcome for the country in its dire situation. The rosiest possible scenario for how the Ukraine conflict could end, is Ukraine own defensive capabilities being bolstered by NATO, allowing its military and civilian resistance to overcome the odds and grind Moscow’s advance to a halt. In this hypothetical scenario, Putin would be prevented from toppling Kyiv’s government and establishing a puppet regime, while the determination and skill of the Ukrainian resistance forces a stalemate on the battlefield that favors the defenders. Indeed in this “miracle” scenario, the analysts said that the Kremlin realizes that Russia “will pay an exorbitant price” for its invasion of Ukraine and, facing the prospect of a long and costly slog in Ukraine, coupled with economic collapse and diplomatic isolation, Putin would order a withdrawal of his troops. Still, even this outcome where Ukraine remains a sovereign democracy and NATO is faced with an improved security situation could be “fraught with danger,” the analysts warned. “The short war has claimed thousands of lives on both sides, leaving widespread bitterness in its wake. And although a democratic Ukraine emerges intact if not unscathed, its still-dangerous neighbor faces an uncertain future with the Russian political landscape at a tipping point. Whether the country leans toward greater authoritarianism under Putin, or away from him altogether, will largely determine how Russia behaves with the rest of the world.