THE MINSK DISAGREEMENTS

The key obstacle to disengagement in Donbas, and to a sustainable ceasefire more broadly, is that no side has faith that an acceptable political settlement will follow. Conflicting views of the Minsk agreements are at the heart of the impasse.

A.The View from Moscow

Moscow appears to have had by far the upper hand in shaping the terms of the Minsk II agreement, and likely believes that full implementation of it as written would work in Russia’s favour. In its interpretation, the accord requires Ukraine to largely accept the de facto statelets’ governance structures as an integral part of the reunited state. Moscow sees Kyiv’s absorption of these sympathetic entities as a way to mould Ukraine into a buffer against a hostile West, while freeing itself from Western condemnation and sanctions. Some Kremlin figures may also genuinely believe that this set-up would benefit Ukrainians, whom they see as largely sympathetic to Russia, and in need of protection from a West that seeks to dilute Ukraine’s culture and exploit its resources.  Those who take this view acknowledge that Russian military and political support has helped sustain the de facto republics, but nevertheless deem these entities a reflection of grassroots Ukrainian sentiment.

Against this backdrop, Moscow’s official line is that Kyiv bears all responsibility to implement Minsk. Specifically, it places the burden on Ukraine to enforce a strict ceasefire along the front line, negotiate the terms of reintegration with the de facto leaders in the Donetsk and Luhansk statelets, amend the constitution to cement the breakaway regions’ special status and hold elections there. From Moscow’s vantage, only then can the Ukrainian government expect to resume control of its side of the border with Russia.

B. Ukrainian Perspectives

The Pro-Russians

Within Ukraine, views of Minsk are varied. The political opposition is largely divided into two camps. One wing, colloquially referred to as “pro-Russian”, tends toward the Kremlin perspective on Minsk, likely due to a mixture of cultural sympathies and business interests. While viewed as something of a fifth column by the rest of the political elite and much of Ukraine’s top-tier media, this camp draws electoral support in the south-eastern regions close to Donbas, where their message of compromise with Russia resonates.

The Pro-Europe

At the other end of the spectrum are opposition parties that position themselves as liberal and/or “pro-Europe”, which is to say in favour of working toward integration with the EU and stronger partnerships with its member states. These tend to proclaim the Minsk process dead or at least moribund, stressing either that Russia came up with the terms of the second agreement or that Moscow has not implemented its obligations by enforcing a ceasefire and disarming its proxy forces – or both. Many who take this view believe that the key to Ukraine’s success lies in “decoupling itself from Russia politically, economically, religiously, culturally”. Many see Moscow’s heavy-handedness in negotiating Minsk II, and the circumstances in which it was signed, as ultimate proof of Russia’s cynicism and hostility, and as validation of their orientation toward Europe. They equate implementing Minsk to surrender and oppose reintegrating the population of the Donbas breakaways, at least in the near future.

The Detractors

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has sought a third way between Minsk’s domestic supporters and detractors, and both groups are represented on his team. Zelenskyy himself, according to advisers, is sincerely eager for quick peace and reintegration, and open to the view that the war is not only a function of Russian aggression, but also an expression of Ukrainian citizens’ competing visions for their country. At the same time, however, the president appears resentful of Russia’s denials of direct involvement in the conflict and its attempts to dictate the terms of peace. Beyond seeking a ceasefire, his administration’s approach to Minsk has combined attempts to interpret the letter of the agreement creatively with efforts to renegotiate its stickiest components, such as when and how Kyiv resumes control of the country’s eastern border.

Minsk's detractors also include the Donbas separatists. Military and financially dependent on Russia, they are not allowed their own negotiating positions within the Minsk format. Their representatives attend Minsk discussions as observers: they parrot Russian positions, even as Kremlin representatives try to push them forward as Kyiv’s main negotiation partners.

The Separatist Detractors

Still, unlike Moscow, the separatists mainly oppose reintegration. Their opposition is driven by a combination of factors, including fear of violent or judicial reprisals, attachment to new sources of illicit earnings enabled by their political power and, for some, dreams of joining Russia. The separatists’ views may not be on display during formal negotiations, but they have made them clear through other channels. In a January 2020 social media post, a spokesman for the armed groups indicated that the only desirable “reintegration” was military victory for the separatists.