WHAT MILITARY OPTIONS FOR RUSSIA IN UKRAINE ?

Russia could contemplate a wide range of scenarios from targeted missile strikes to a limited incursion from the east or south of the country, and even a full-scale invasion backed by cyber warfare.

After deploying about 100,000 Russian soldiers close to Ukraine’s northern, eastern and southern borders, President Putin has warned he has “all kinds” of options if his demands over Ukraine and Nato’s activities in the former Soviet bloc are unmet.

The deployment of major units and sophisticated weaponry, coupled with strident rhetoric, has raised the prospect of turning the slow-burning proxy war in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region into a full-blown conflict. While President Putin has denied making plans for an invasion, he has made it clear that Russia is prepared to use appropriate military-technical measures to react harshly to hostile steps.

A limited invasion

The most likely casus belli would resemble the one that triggered the four-day war with Georgia in 2008. Russia at that time responded to Tbilisi’s attempts to secure territory held by Moscow-backed rebels with a land invasion supported by air and artillery strikes, a naval blockade and cyber attacks. Russia would frame the conflict with Ukraine as a move to protect the Russian-speaking Donbas from what it would describe as Ukrainian aggression.  Donbas is home to two self-proclaimed separatist statelets where Moscow has given many residents (over 600,000)  Russian citizenship in recent years. Russia has led the separatist forces throughout the conflict and used its army to overwhelm Ukraine’s forces in 2014 and 2015, prompting Kyiv to make concessions at peace talks. The scale and duration of any escalation would then depend on how quickly Ukraine capitulated to Russia’s demands. Targeted air strikes Russia could inflict significant damage on Ukraine’s military through aerial assaults on the front lines, military facilities and critical infrastructure. Though Russia’s air force has not flown against a hostile air defence since the Georgian war, there’s plenty of cruise and ballistic missiles that can come into play here from either the Black Sea or from the Russian homeland, and the Ukrainian air defence system will struggle to cope. A potential strike could use airborne missiles as well as heavy artillery and long-range flamethrowers. That would be incredibly devastating on Ukrainian land power. Russia’s military superiority would enable it to overrun Ukraine’s army in weeks by launching assaults on multiple fronts including from Belarus and the Black Sea. 

Full-scale invasion

A full-blown invasion would allow Russia to take over swaths of territory that could be used for a counter-offensive in the Donbas. It would also play to Putin’s notion that Ukraine’s Russian-speaking areas east of the Dnipro river are Moscow’s “historical territories”. Analysts consider that scenario less likely because of the enormous manpower it would require and likely significant casualties for Russian forces. But the extent of the assault would ultimately depend on how much damage Moscow had to inflict to force Ukraine to admit defeat. They could inflict tens of thousands of casualties after a couple of days. They could significantly degrade Ukraine’s military capability in the east. But would that be enough to force Ukraine to concede? That comes down to their cost-benefit analysis

Note

Russian forces stationed on Ukraine’s border can generate about 25 to 30 battalion tactical groups and the forces that have been mobilized in recent months to join them represent another 35 to 40 battalion tactical groups. Recently arrived forces from the Eastern Military District might bring this figure to a total of 65 to 70. A battalion tactical group is a task-organized combined-arms maneuver formation, averaging 800 personnel per unit (though it can be as small as 600 and as large as 1,000). It is essentially a battalion plus enablers such as artillery, logistics, and air defense. Total estimated end strength is therefore already over 100,000 personnel. These figures do not include airpower, naval units, or additional logistical components that are likely to support this force. Russian-led forces in Ukraine’s Donbas region might account for another 15,000 troops, but they have considerably lower combat effectiveness than Russian regulars.

The force gathered from other Russian regions largely consists of prepositioned equipment, but it is already sufficient for a military operation. There are indications that Russia has begun sending personnel. The current force is largely within the self-deployment range, which means they can move to the border in a matter of days once personnel arrive. Russia retains considerable force-generation potential and can surge units to the area on relatively short notice. Publicly available estimates suggest Moscow might gather a force of 90 to 100 battalion tactical groups, together with reserves, and auxiliary forces for a total of 150,000 to 175,000 troops. The Russian military is not yet in position for such a largescale operation, but it could have the requisite forces and elements placed in the coming weeks.