THE IMPORTANCE OF THE BLACK SEA FOR RUSSIA

The unique geography of the Black Sea region confers several geopolitical advantages to Russia. The Black Sea holds a special significance for Russia  for several reasons. Firstly, it is an important crossroads and strategic intersection for the entire region. Access to the Black Sea is vital for all littoral and neighboring states, and greatly enhances the projection of power into several adjacent regions. Secondly, the region is an important transit corridor for goods and energy. Thirdly, the Black Sea region is rich in cultural and ethnic diversity, and due to geographical proximity, share close historical ties with Russia.

The Black Sea Fleet is an operational-strategic command of the Russian Navy located on the Black Sea which also includes the ships harbored in the Azov Sea.  The Black Sea Fleet has an immense political and military significance for the Russian government.  The geostrategic significance of the Black Sea Fleet is further increased by the possibility of accessing the Mediterranean Sea by the Bosphorus and Dardanelle straits, which allows Russia to send its naval force into a warm-water sea. This fact is one of the most important traits of the Black Sea Fleet which explains how and why this fleet survived since the 18th century and why the Crimean Peninsula is so important to Russian.

Beside Russia, the other countries that have coastlines on the Black Sea are Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Georgia and Turkey. The Ukrainian Navy has around 6,000-7,000 servicemen with HQ in Odessa (before the Ukrainian the Navy had more than 13,000), the Romanian Navy numbers around 7,000 servicemen (one part of the navy operates on the Black Sea coast the other on the Danube river), the Bulgarian Navy has around 3,500 servicemen with HQ in Varna, Georgia whose Navy was merged with the Coast Guard in 2009 under the jurisdiction of the Border Guard and the Ministry of Interior Affairs has 5,000 servicemen and HQ in Poti. And finally, Turkey which has the longest coastline and is also the country which controls the Bosphorus and the Dardanelle straits. The Turkish Navy has around 50,000 servicemen (~15,000 active and ~35,000 conscripts) with its Northern Sea Area Command in Istanbul and Southern Sea Area Command in Izmir. Although the country has the largest coastline on the Black Sea, Turkey’s primary naval objectives are focused on the two straits connecting the Black Sea with the Mediterranean. These two straits have an enormous impact on all naval forces in the Black Sea as well as on the commerce of Turkey and other countries in that region. The significance of these straits can be seen in the daily transportation of oil which reaches more than 2.9 million barrels per day transported by 5,500 oil tankers. Though Turkey has sovereignty over the Bosphorus and the Dardanelle, closing these straits for whichever navy would mean an open act of aggression.

The Black Sea Fleet is truly a major asset for Russia, especially since the unification of Crimea. Also, the power of this fleet can be further boosted by the Caspian Flotilla which is connected to the Black Sea via the Volga-Don canal. .

Of the six Black Sea littoral states, three – Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey – are members of NATO, and the other two –Ukraine and Georgia –are working in close partnership with the Alliance.

Russia vs. Turkey

The Russian leadership has remained supportive, which has earned praise and gratitude from Erdogan himself. Besides trying to decouple Turkey’s links to NATO, maintaining cordial relations with Ankara carries another strategic purpose for Moscow. Turkey controls the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits – the vital passage between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. Should Ankara one day decide to close the straits, it could bottle up the Black Sea Fleet and severely limit Russia’s ability to project power further abroad. In the event of a crisis, Moscow’s priority must be to ensure that Turkey at the very least remains neutral, allowing Russia to continue resupplying its forces in the Mediterranean. Should the passage be closed by an openly hostile Turkey, Russia would find its forces in the Mediterranean in great danger. With the second most powerful military force in the region, Turkey possesses the offensive capabilities to threaten Russia’s isolated forces. A defeat would deal a major blow to Russia’s prestige and status as a military power. Moscow therefore, must continue to engage Ankara, strengthening bilateral ties while seeking ways to find some compromise over their differences.

Russia vs. Bulgaria

Bulgaria is an EU and NATO member with deep historical and cultural ties to Russia. Bulgaria is highly dependent on Russian fossil fuels; thus far, however, the government has steadfastly followed EU guidelines and rejected several Russian pipeline projects. Though not explicitly pro-Russian, the political mainstream in Bulgaria seeks to reconcile a firm pro-EU and pro-NATO stance with friendly relations with Russia. Bulgaria considers sanctions an obstacle for its own economy. There is a deep penetration of Russian interests in the economy. Bulgaria’s relationship with Russia is best described as ‘below-radar supporter’, where concerns are tempered by historical relations and local context, and there is avoidance of vocal criticism. Internal political tensions in Bulgaria between pro-Russian and pro-Western factions have contributed at times to a less than coherent message about the role of Russian influence in the country. Rumen Radev, the current President - though constitutionally independent- is supported by the Bulgarian Social Party and his political agenda remains unclear. He has repeatedly questioned EU sanctions against Russia and expressed his interest in balancing Bulgaria’s Euro-Atlantic orientation, while maintaining a mutually beneficial relationship with Russia. On sanctions, Bulgaria mostly continues to follow the lead of EU heavyweights like Germany and France. However, Prime Minister Borisov has publicly announced that he would seek lifting of sanctions against Russia

Russia vs. Romania

Romania presents a bigger challenge. Although it has pursued dialogue with Russia, it has also pushed for greater NATO presence in the region. It has taken on a leadership role in the Bucharest Format – a multilateral grouping of nine NATO members created to follow up on NATO commitments.  The country also currently hosts elements of the U.S. anti-missile shield, which has led the Kremlin to declare it a clear threat. Although Romanian military capabilities are no match for the Russia , its eagerness to encourage NATO presence in the Black Sea is in direct contradiction to Moscow’s long-term objectives.