FRENCH INFLUENCE AT EU LEVEL IN FREE FALL
Source: Politico
Though the number of French MEPs will rise from 74 to 79, France’s presence in the European Parliament’s two most powerful parties (EPP & S& D) is set to fall, and many senior MEPs are retiring.
Despite making up 15 percent of the EU’s population post Brexit, France is only expected to take 5 percent of seats held by the EPP and the S&D. According to Politico’s projections, only 16 French nationals out of 317 MEPs are likely to be represented in the EPP and the S&D, compared to 33 in 2014.
Projected Results in France for European Elections
- Front National: 21 seats
- La République en Marche: 20 seats
- Les Républicains : 11 seats
- Les Verts : 8 seats
- France Insoumise : 8 seats
- Debout la France : 6 seats
- Socialists : 5 seats
Consequences for France
- Fewer influential posts for French lawmakers and less clout in the EP (being a sizeable national delegation inside a big group in the EP means wielding considerable clout.
- If French MEPs are only small factions within the EPP and S&D, they stand less chance of winning senior posts such as committee chairs and policy coordinator for their blocs and of driving the legislative agenda.
- Coordinators are crucial as they are appointed for two and hald years thanks to their seniority and experience to act as spokespeople for their group in the Parliament’s legislative committees.
- The loss of big-hitters will also mean a lower media profile for French MEPs back home.
- There will be fewer people in France to explain what the Parliament does for voters. The two big European parties will be inaudible in France.
- France would not be able to count so much on its MEPs to convince their German counterparts in the big group and this could contribute to a greater imbalance in the Franco-German relationship at the heart of the EU.
- La République en Marche has joined the liberal ALDE group which is predicted to win 68 seats and comes third after the EPP, S& S. Also most of its MEPs will be inexperienced, making it harder for them to claim many senior posts in the Parliament or in a group.
In contrast, Euroskeptic parties could collectively win up to 250 seats in the EP according to a new report by the European Council on Foreign Relations. With that share- 35 percent of the whole plenary, Euroskeptics would win 4 vice presidency positions and be entitled to lead around 8 committees. Controlling one-third or more of Parliament’s votes would also put Euroskeptics in a strong position to veto trade deals or prevent action on rule of law issues.
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