THREE SCENARIOS FOR CATALONIA’S REFERENDUM

The Catalan government will go ahead with a referendum in some form and the result will favor independence given the decision by the region’s unionists to boycott the proceedings.

1. Proclamation:  A yes vote will trigger a declaration of independence within two days completely ignoring the fact that the legal basis for the ballot has been suspended by Spain’s constitutional court. Madrid would have to react using the full force of law at its disposal, for example, triggering an article in the constitution suspending the autonomy of Catalonia, effectively taking over Catalonia’s government.  On paper, a “yes” result would trigger a bridging law under which Catalonia will have become a “legal, democratic and social Republic” with the power to raise taxes and expropriate what were Spanish assets and institutions while a full constitution is drawn up for the next referendum in a year’s time. Spain’s courts will continue to strike down these measures as illegal in Spanish terms, but Catalonia’s current leaders claim the right, in the event of a referendum victory, to place their own parliament above any instruments of Spain’s central state.
2. Negotiations: The Rajoy administration has recently started making behind-the-scenes noises to suggest that it is prepared to review the way Spain’s central government cedes power to its autonomous regions. After the referendum, the Catalan government may choose to reciprocate by participating in that review process, from a position of perceived strength. But there are many hurdles to there being any negotiated solution.  A new generation of Catalan nationalists are not as interested as their parents were in increased autonomy or a better financial package from central government; they want to decide their future. The optimum moment for a negotiated deal would appear to have passed.
3. Elections: The third scenario post-vote is that the separatists will not declare independence but dissolve at some point the Catalan parliament, which would lead to early regional elections. Separatist leaders will be hoping that the recent crisis will have rallied more people to their cause, giving them an even bigger parliamentary majority to continue to fight for independence.

The most likely outcome of the coming referendum is a worrying one: an extension of the current state of dual reality, in which pro-independence forces continue their quixotic quest by renaming existing institutions, while the Spain’s judicial juggernaut rolls slowly along behind, restoring things on paper, if not in the hearts and minds of Catalans. The Catalan government has drawn a road map to independence that allows for the region’s residents to maintain their Spanish status while seeking Catalan nationality if they so wish. It is a tacit recognition that even in victory, independence would remain at best a gray area for the foreseeable future.