RUSSIAN POLITICAL STAKEHOLDERS’ MAPPING IN EUROPE

There is a large amount of ideological overlap between some European political parties and the Russian government. Significantly, these include parties considered to be ‘mainstream’ – it is not just ‘fringe’ parties that share elements of the Kremlin’s world-view.

Hardcore anti-Western parties (30 parties)

1. Austria: Freedom Party
2. Belgium: Vlaams Belang
3. Bulgaria: Ataka, Bulgarian Socialist Party; Alternative for Bulgarian Rebirth, Patriotic Front; Movement for Recharging Bulgaria
4. Denmark: Danish People’s Party
5. France: Front National
6. Germany: Nationaldemokratische Partei; Alternative für Deutschland; Liberal Conservative Reformers
7. Greece: Independent Greeks; Golden Dawn; Siriza; Communist Party
8. Hungary: Jobbik; Fidesz; Christian Democratic People’s Party
9. Italy: Fratelli d’Italia/Centrodestra Nazionale; Legal Nord; Five Star Movement
10. Portugal: Unitary Democratic Coalition; Dawn-National Coalition
11. Slovakia: Kotleba- Peoples Party of Slovakia; We are Family; Slovak National Party
12. Sweden: Sweden Democrats

With the exception of the Sweden Democrats, all the parties in this group support closer ties between their country and Russia, oppose sanctions on Russia, or have party contacts with the Russian regime. They want to bring an end to the ‘NATO/EU-centric’ European security order in favour of a system that would suit Russia’s interests. The FPÖ and the Lega Nord have agreed cooperation pacts with Vladimir Putin’s ruling party, United Russia. 

 Moderate anti-Western parties (31 parties)

1. Austria: Austrian Social Democratic Party; Austrian People’s Party
2. Czech Republic: Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSCM)
3. Estonia: Conservative People’s Party
4. Finland: Finns Party; Centrum
5. France: Les Républicains
6. Germany: Die Linke
7. Hungary: Fidesz
8. Italy: Forza Italia; Südtiroler Volkspartei
9. Netherlands: Party of Freedom (PVV)
10. Poland: Kukiz’15
11. Slovakia: Slovak Direction-Social Democracy
12. Spain: Unidos Podemos

The parties in this category: show a preference for close relations with Russia, are in favour of lifting sanctions, and have ties with the Russian regime. The exceptions to this rule are the Finns Party, Centrum (also from Finland), the Südtiroler Volkspartei in Italy, Kukiz’15 in Poland, and the Conservative People’s Party of Estonia. The remaining 26 parties in this category are inclined towards Russian interests.

 Moderate pro-Western parties (49 parties)

This group is very heterogeneous

1. Bulgaria: GERB
2. Czech Social Democrats
3. Finland: Finnish Social Democrats
4. France: Parti Socialiste
5. Germany: German Social Democrats
6. Italy: Italian Democratic Party
7. Portugal: Portuguese Socialist Party
8. Slovenia: Slovenian Social Democrats
9. Spain: Partido Popular
10. United Kingdom: British Conservative Party

Within these moderate pro-Western parties is a special subgroup comprising left-wing parties that are completely pro-Western – except when it comes to questions relating to Russia directly. These parties also promote closer ties or economic cooperation with Russia, easing sanctions at the earliest opportunity.  The parties belonging to this ‘inconsistent left’ group do not support the ideological agenda that the Kremlin promotes in Europe, nor do they promote outright ideological confrontation with the Kremlin over the future of Europe’s political, social, and economic order.

 Pro-Western parties (71 parties)

1. France: La République en Marche!
2. Germany: Christian Democratic Union (CDU)
3. Poland: Civic Platform
4. Portugal: Social Democratic Party
5. Spain: Socialist Party

Some western European parties in this group are relatively relaxed about the question of whether or not Russia is a threat. But no party promotes the lifting of sanctions or cultivating ties with the regime. There are no out-and-out pro-Russian parties in this category.

Conclusion

Sympathy towards Russia is found within all types of parties, right across the EU. Moreover, such views can spread across national political systems to such an extent that they become the dominant view. Of the 30 radical anti-Western parties for which data is available, 25 seek closer ties to Russia; of the 31 moderate anti-Western parties, 22 do so; of the 49 moderate pro-Western parties, 12 are known to seek closer ties to Russia; and of the 71 fully pro-Western parties only six modestly embrace rapprochement of some kind.

Despite the current unity within the EU on maintaining sanctions, relations with Russia and support for sanctions are highly polarising issues in domestic politics. The issue is also inherently divisive across Europe, as national consensuses vary greatly, with Greece the most pro-Russian and Poland the least. There is support for lifting sanctions and creating closer ties with Russia in Greece, Hungary, Austria, Slovakia, Bulgaria, France, the Czech Republic, Italy, and Portugal, while on the other hand Poland, Estonia, the United Kingdom, Romania, Denmark, Sweden, and Germany are sceptical of the possibility of achieving better relations with Russia. For the moment, the sceptical states seem able to hold the line on sanctions. But it is a fragile status quo.