BREXIT TENTATIVE CALENDAR

Important Note: Until the process of negotiations is over, the United Kingdom remains a member of the European Union, with all the rights and obligations that derive from this. According to the Treaties which the United Kingdom has ratified, EU law continues to apply to the full to and in the United Kingdom until it is no longer a Member.

29 March 2017 : UK Prime Minister writes the letter notifying the EU Council of the UK’s intention to leave. This letter may set out more details about the UK approach to negotiation. EU leaders are expected to give a first response to the British Government within 48 hours of the triggering of Article 50

March-April 2017: The European Commission will likely publish (or leak) draft guidelines that set out the EU’s expectations on how the negotiations will run and what they want to achieve. This would cover ‘sequencing’ the chapter headings for negotiations and some EU red lines.

April 2017 : The European Parliament will move to pass a non-binding resolution making its position known to Member States and the European Commission attempting to frame the debate. Resolutions will continue throughout.

29 April 2017: Guidelines will in effect serve as the EU’s response to the Article 50 letter. 

May-June 2017: EU-27 agrees negotiating directives. Once the guidelines have been decided, the EU-27 must formally nominate the European Commission as its lead negotiator and develop confidential directives giving the body a more detailed mandate. The Commission will make a proposal and the EU will spend roughly four weeks discussing these terms. The mandate must then be approved by EU-27 ministers. Negotiations cannot take place until this happens.

June-September 2017: The European Commission will negotiate on behalf of the Council and the EU Parliament. It will do so under a mandate agreed by the Council. This may take the form of a document setting out EU ambitions and red lines under each chapter heading. It may or may not be published. Precise timing will depend on the outcome of the German election.

September 2017: Germany goes to the polls. Brexit discussions will be well under way by the time Germans vote for a new government (France will have chosen its new president by May 7). Once a new coalition government is agreed and the German chancellor is installed, a process that could take weeks, the cast of Europe’s top leaders will be in place. They will decide between them what sort of deal, if any, the block concludes with the UK.

Autumn 2017: Negotiations will begin in earnest. They will probably be broken into chapters, each covering a different topic. As negotiations progress, some earlier chapters will be closed, although they will not be formally agreed until the deal is completed.

December 2017: Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, wants a “divorce-first” approach to negotiations, delaying talks on a future trade deal until Britain has agreed principles on an exit bill and the rights of EU migrants. He expects these initial divorce discussions to last until December. The UK government is keen to ensure all elements of Brexit are negotiated “in parallel”. Some EU Member States think discussion about future relations could be initiated earlier than December. But an overwhelming majority of EU-27 countries agree that Britain must accept basic principles on the divorce before trade talks begin.

October 2018: Michel Barnier said he wanted talks wrapped up by October 2018 to allow both sides time to ratify the deal.

2018: The negotiation needs to conclude in time for the EU to ratify the deal before the window closes. This process is likely to take around 6 months and could be complicated if the deal is a ‘mixed agreement’ (i.e. it touches on Member States competencies) in which case the approval of national parliaments and some regional parliaments will be required.

March 2019: Ratification by EU Member States, the European Council and the European Parliament must have taken place by this point. The UK parliament has also been promised a vote on the deal signed before it takes effect. European Parliament elections are planned in May 2019. This makes it hard to extend the Article 50 deadline beyond March without complex legal work, which would deal with the question of whether the UK would elect candidates and what would happen to them.

April 2019: UK departure from the EU should be complete.