FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES AND RUSSIA

Fillon’s views on Russia, in particular, fly in the face of the current European consensus. Fillon believes French policy has been too aligned with the US, whether on Ukraine or the Middle East in spite of the countries' significant differences in opinion on these issues. And that, with ISIS and Islamism being the top security priorities for France following the terror attacks since January 2015, an alliance with Vladimir Putin's Russia is badly needed, even at the price of conflating ISIS and other terrorist groups with any other forces fighting against the Assad government.

Fillon calls not only for the ‘re-establishment’ of a political dialogue with Russia but also for the EU to lift all sanctions against Russia, including those adopted as a consequence of 'Crimea rejoining Russia'.

The French public’s opinion on the Russia question differs from Fillon’s. The majority have no confidence in Vladimir Putin and support maintaining economic sanctions against Russia on the Ukraine issue. 

If both Fillon and the Front National’s leader, Marine Le Pen reach the second round of the presidential election, a rapprochement with Putin’s Russia will become the order of the day for French foreign policy. At the moment, both Fillon and Le Pen run on a pro-Russia or at least anti-sanctions platform.

Fillon’s pro-Russia views are long held, and he himself often refers to his personal ties to Putin when they were both prime ministers. But pro-Russia sentiment has become much more widespread on the French political right in general.The support base for this rapprochement policy includes activists advocating the defence of Christian minorities in the Middle East, traditional anti-Americans advocates and economic lobbies opposed to sanctions.

France's change of posture vis-à-vis Russia would directly challenge the existing consensus within the EU on how to deal with Russia. And such a break would be a direct blow to Germany’s efforts to resolve the Ukraine crisis, and its balancing act between those in Europe holding the line on sanctions, and those more favourable to engagement with Moscow. France has been a key ally in Angela Merkel’s endeavours to walk this tight-rope. But that might be about to change. And the fact that Fillon mentions the option to work also with Iran in Syria, so as to re-balance France’s current alliance with Sunni Gulf powers, will hardly be well received in the US under the Trump administration.

A u-turn in France’s Russia policy could fracture the current EU consensus, and wouldn’t bode well for EU partners’ desire to continue supporting the French. The moment of truth could come quickly for France. The EU decision to again renew its sanctions against Russia is scheduled for next June, only a few weeks after the new French president takes office. EU rules dictate that one country alone can obstruct the consensus. No EU partner – however wary of the rationale for sanctions – has dared to make the first move in this direction so far. If France is the first, the consequences for Europe’s unity, and French national security, may well be tremendous.

Other EU Member States wanting to lift sanctions against Russia

1. Austria
2. Bulgaria
3. Cyprus
4. Czech Republic
5. Germany (as soon as progress is made in the Minsk Agreement)
6. Greece
7. Hungary
8. Italy
9. Luxembourg
10. Slovakia