POSSIBLE UK BREXIT STRATEGIES

The U.K.’s success at undermining the bloc’s united front will dictate whether the UK can extract concessions from the EU, such as retaining preferred trading relationships and favorable access for London’s financial firms. The remaining 27 governments have managed to a hold a common line so far but the two-year negotiation will test competing priorities from Paris to Budapest and Lisbon to Warsaw. The UK might play a game of 'divide and rule’ because Member States are not as united as they appear and it might try and slice them apart on certain issues.

  1. Diplomats from eastern Europe have signaled , in return for Britains continued funding, a willingness to consider giving the U.K. single-market access even if it restricts the free movement of labor, a stance that would put those Member States on a collision course with richer, western nations that insist the two policies are inseparable. The U.K. could pledge to pay its EU membership bill until the end of the current budget period in 2020, and even beyond.
  2. Capitalize on the power struggles within the EU by trying to deal directly with national capitals. This could blindside the Commission, which is supposed to be leading the negotiations in Brussels. Many national governments already have deep distrust of the Commission, believing that it doesnt always reflect their interests.
  3. Make defense a bargaining chip. The EU has made no secret that any Brexit deal must safeguard the stability of the bloc. Eastern European countries in particular are open to continued assistance from the U.K given Russias proximity to their borders. What can they allow in return?
  4. The U.K. knows that certain industries in the EU want to keep selling to Britain tariff-free. While the EU governments have stuck by their line that the U.K. cannot cherry pick access to the single market, the U.K. understands that by keeping leading companies in Britain and presenting the case for free trade as beneficial to the wider European economy, it has a powerful argument.
  5. While Britains wants to safeguard the rights of British nationals living in the EU, making commitments to protect Europeans who moved to the U.K. under EU free movement rules could win the UK some early goodwill.
  6. Slashing Britains corporation tax rate would have a direct impact on EU economies and any threat to do so may pressure governments to agree to a trade deal that is advantageous to the U.K., or allow financial-services firms continued access to the single market.
  7. The U.K. can use unpredictable events to gain some leverage. While theres an argument that governments with other things on their minds means the more ideological and rules-based European Commission plays a bigger role in negotiations, an uncertain and unstable Europe will find it harder to stay united.

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