THE THREAT TO THE EU IS NOT TRUMP BUT THE EU’S STRUGGLE FOR A STRATEGIC NARRATIVE

The EU struggles for a Strategic Narrative. The EU strategic narrative is complicated by the hybrid nature of the institution - reflecting both supranational and intergovernmental aspects, which complicates efforts to speak with a single voice in international affairs. The EU has in recent years lost a vision for a shared narrative , thus hampering the EU's strategic impact. This has been most clearly witnessed in EU crisis management in which diverging and occasionally conflicting narratives have emerged.

The EU needs a new narrative based on a turn to greater pragmatism and pluralism to overcome its internal and external challenges.

In the face of competing economic and governance models, the absence of a new strategic narrative response to its challenges has led to questions concerning whether the EU can continue to be  influential globally. It is this context which defines the predicament in which the EU finds itself on the international level.

Given the nature of challenges faced internally (Brexit and Eurozone crises hint at multi-speed Europe) and externally, the EU’s response must involve projecting a new version of singularity through plurality. This should happen at the levels of issue, identity and system narratives. The EU must go with the grain of international affairs and project a narrative of plural speeds, organisational forms and values. There must be recognition that movement and action does not have to be directed by EU institutions; this may occur on occasions, particularly when high-level diplomacy is required, but more often a combination of actors at different levels should  be involved.

The EU is inextricably linked with a strategic narrative, primarily aimed at bringing European states together in a cooperative project and to communicate a collective voice internally and externally but the implementation of this has yet to be fundamentally addressed.  The EU faces a dilemma around how it can communicate its identity, its role in the world, how it understands the emerging international order, and  how it narrates emerging policy challenges both within the EU and further afield. Inevitably, the EU’s attempts to narrate its identity, how it views the international order and how it addresses policy developments comes up against entrenched narratives, emanating primarily from the EU’s member states. Likewise, the EU’s efforts to play a leading role in the shifting international order face counter-narratives of the role of existing and emerging Great Powers (USA, China, Russia) shaping the rules of the game. The EU’s desire to be considered a new type of international actor comes under pressure to demonstrate influence in the face of powerful nation states.  

Placed in the context of the EU’s current challenges, defining the very nature of the problems, let alone the solution and the potential outcome of EU decisions remain deeply contested. The EU’s hybridity throws up competing conceptions of crisis management, reflecting and reinforcing polyphony rather than a clear unified European voice.

Current U.S.-EU relations provide an opportunity for a new EU narrative? Here we should distinguish issues of major interest to only one of the EU and the U.S. ; issues of interest to both but on which they disagree; and issues of interest to both and which agreement can be found. What is needed is a narrative based  on mutual accommodation in which both have direct interests that can be acceptable to both parties.

The real threat is not Trump but the need for the EU to get its act together", recognize its weaknesses and launch a new vision for the future.