ELECTION OF NEW PRESIDENT OF THE EP

MEPs will elect their President on 17 January after the departure of Martin Schulz, who is stepping down to return to German politics. The new President will serve until European elections in 2019.

Candidates

1. Antonio Tajani, European People’s Party
2. Gianni Pittella, Socialists & Democrats
3. Guy Verhofstadt, Alliance for Liberals and Democrats in Europe

For the first time in a while, it’s an open race and a tricky one. None of the three can win without one of the others withdrawing. None of the three can get the job if the other two join forces, except if they allow the far Right to have a say, and historically, the main parties have been unwilling to do that, seeing them as detrimental to the European project/ And only one of the three can save both the honor of their group and personal pride.

The three blocs have raised the stakes too high for a backroom deal, making the election a question of principles for the first time in a while. That situation will require creativity from group leaders on election day. As it happens, two of the three candidates (Pittella and Verhofstadt) are leaders of their respective groups themselves. In other words, there won’t be a winner in the first round. This will be a fight until at least one candidate withdraws, which, given the personalities and stakes in play, could take a while.

Under parliamentary rules, to be elected President  a candidate must win an absolute majority of the votes cast which means 50 percent plus one. The European Parliament is comprised of 751 Members, so 376 votes are needed to win the Presidency. Currently, the EPP holds 216 seats, while the S&D has 189, the European Conservatives and Reformists have 74 and ALDE has 69. Smaller parties and non-affiliated MEPs make up the balance. Allegiances tend to break along party lines, but also nationally with Germany having 96 MEPs, followed by France with 74, and Italy and the U.K. with 73 each.

How this plays out will show whether Parliament’s big players prefer a stable majority built among the big groups. It will also show if, by coming together around a new leader, they are committed to continue to build the European Parliament as a powerful player in Brussels as in recent years.  It’s easier for other power players in the EU, such as the Commission and member governments, to outmaneuver a divided and fractious chamber.