GMF EXPERTS AND EUROPEAN ISSUES IN 2017

Rachel Tausendfreund, Editorial Director: " Europe will not be able to solve any of its other crises until the underlying instability surrounding the euro crisis is properly fixed. Italy and Greece  start the new year fiscally unsound and with new warnings of failing banks, while increasing numbers of refugees and migrants are landing on their shores. Germany, the indispensable country for a fix to the euro crisis, faces an election year that will leave it unable to render further aid until September and likely weakened thereafter. Plus there is still Brexit.”

Rosa Balfour : “The non-story of 2017 might be the European Union's drift towards irrelevance amid the indifference of most. Scapegoated as the cause of the rise of populism and anti-globalism, European states have long stopped supporting the project of integration on the continent. Hollowed out of their powers and legitimacy, EU institutions may not disintegrate but simply become a talking shop, and EU member states will cooperate only when seen as meeting national prerogatives.”

Joerg Forbrig: “Among a raft of elections in Europe in 2017, those in Germany will be the most turbulent and consequential ones. As a result of the eurozone crisis and, especially, the refugee challenge, the political landscape is more polarized than ever in postwar Germany. The far-right Alternative for Germany has steadily gained traction with its nationalist, anti-immigrant, and Eurosceptic agenda, adding to and often combining with the anti-market and anti-Western positions that have long been advocated by the far left. In combination, these fringes are putting an unprecedented pressure on Germany’s political middle, which after four years of a Christian and Social Democrat government displays increasing fissures. Germany will see a highly divisive campaign and, eventually, a new government that is more contested and unstable than previous ones. This will undermine much-praised German stability and impair the country’s influence in Europe and the world.”

Martin Michelot: “The presidential election in France this spring is billed as the next big challenge to the liberal order. Aside from the simplistic narrative, eager attention will have to be paid to how a potential François Fillon victory reconfigures French thinking and role within Europe. The conservative candidate openly called for a “Europe of Nations” which France would lead, already putting him in clear opposition with the mainstream of European integration. The real challenge for France will be to deal with domestic instability. In June 2017, legislative elections will likely give the National Front (FN) a much smaller amount of MPs than the popular vote would command. Therefore, Fillon’s first real challenge may well be to have to stave off criticism about the inadequate representation of the electorate, one that will carry for the five years of his term, and will be amplified by the FN in case of a lack of success in implementing his vision for a “Europe of Nations.” In parallel, Fillon’s planned economic reforms could well cause a winter of discontent in French streets. Europe will not be the priority of France’s next president. A France unwilling to weigh in fully in European decision-making will be a determining factor in the EU’s balance of power.”

Astrid Ziebarth: “Europe will continue to externalize migration and asylum policy and try to deter incoming migration, trying to cut deals with third countries along its borders or on major migration routes in Africa. Meanwhile, the EU–Turkey deal, which along with the closing of the Balkan route repressed arrivals into Europe, has only been implemented in fragments and is tenuous. With elections in the Netherlands, France, and Germany all before September next year, the security and migration debate will be prominent and heated, providing fertile ground for populists.”