THE NEW EU POLITICAL LANDSCAPE : WHO CAN MAKE IT HAPPEN?

1. Austria : Christian Kern (Chancellor), Chair of Social Democratic Party of Austria (SPÖ)
2. Belgium: Charles Michel (Prime Minister)
3. Bulgaria: Boyko Borisov (Prime Minister)
4. Croatia:  Andrej Plenkovic (Prime Minister)
5. Cyprus: Nicos Anastasiades (President)
6. Czech Republic:  Bohuslav Sobotka (Prime Minister)
7. Denmark: Lars Lokke Rasmusssen (Prime Minister)
8. Estonia: Jüri Ratas (Prime Minister)
9. Finland: Juha Sipilä (Prime Minister)
10. France : François Hollande (Out of the game) New Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve appointed until end of presidential term (May 2017)
11. Germany : Angela Merkel (Chancellor)
12. Greece: Alexis Tsipras (Prime Minister)
13. Hungary: Victor Orban (Prime Minister)
14. Ireland: Enda Kenny (Prime Minister)
15. Italy: Matteo Renzi (Out of the game) New Prime Minister to be appointed
16. Latvia: Maris Kucinskis (Prime Minister)
17. Lithuania: Dalia Grybauskaite (President)
18. Luxembourg: Xavier Bettel (Prime Minister), Member of the Democratic Party
19. Netherlands:  Mark Rutte (Prime Minister)
20. Malta: Joseph Muscat (Prime Minister)
21. Poland: Beata Szydlo (Prime Minister), Vice Chairman of the Law and Justice Party
22. Portugal: Antonio Costa (Prime Minister)
23. Romania: Klaus Iohannis (President)
24. Slovakia: Robert Fizo (Prime Minister)
25. Slovenia: Moro Cerar (Prime Minister)
26. Spain: Mariano Rajoy Brey (Prime Minister)
27. Sweden: Stefan Löfven (Prime Minister)
28. United Kingdom : Teresa May (Prime Minister Out of the game)

Note

Angela Merkel is one of the few leaders left in Europe who speaks out for values, who defends the West’s liberal order, and who does not pander to populists or Euroskeptic movements. For now, Merkel is Europe’s undisputed leader and one of the few who might able to push back the appeal of populists, or at least give some hope to those parties that want to uphold Europe’s values. But she cannot carry the burden alone.

The challenges that the European Union will face in the coming months are too big for a single person, or even a single country, to handle alone. In 2017, the European Union will confront political, financial and security threats. France will hold presidential elections in April and May. A victory by the National Front, a party that wants France to leave the European Union and the eurozone, could lead to the dismantling of the currency area and even to the dissolution of the continental bloc. In addition, in Italy early elections could be held there in 2017. That could open the door to a win by the Five Star Movement, a party that also wants to leave the eurozone.

Berlin doesn't want to be seen as acting alone, so it constantly seeks coalitions to help it lead. Europe's political fragmentation, however, is making it increasingly difficult for Germany to find enough consensus within the bloc. This situation could worsen during 2017 if Euroskeptic forces become more influential. In some cases, the messages of those parties also carry a dose of anti-German rhetoric, blaming the government in Berlin for the austerity measures that were introduced in response to the economic crisis.

The German government will certainly react to events in Europe next year and will try to keep the bloc together. But it will also face limitations of its own. Europe's internal contradictions and external threats are creating challenges for the European Union that could go well beyond Berlin's ability to influence events in the bloc.