THE CHALLENGE OF EUROPE VIS-A-VIS THE NEW PRESIDENT ELECT

Whether Europe will rise to the Trump challenge is not a foregone conclusion. Of course, it should. Trump’s victory has manifold implications for Europe and the transatlantic relationship.

Europe needs to prepare for all scenarios: security and defense, European unity, foreign policy, trade, climate change, the basics of transatlantic cooperation, are all up for potential shake-up which will leave European states and institutions struggling to adjust.

For Washington, the key question will be whether Europe will step up as transatlantic partner or become a liability. Seen from Europe, both are possible. European leaders are putting a united front, but the realities are that the trend toward fragmentation is strong. National capitals are pushing back on Brussels as a center of regulatory power. The European Union institutions are no longer performing their historical role of consensus-builders and their legitimacy is seriously questioned. The UK’s looming departure underscores existing disparities in Europe, strengthening Germany’s leadership, which alone cannot solve Europe’s ailments.

Seen from Washington, Mr. Trump will need to weigh up how important a solid Europe will be in the face of his other foreign policy priorities. As his predecessors, Mr. Trump has consistently demanded that Europeans take a larger share of the global security burden. This is not a new demand and Europeans have, slowly, come to realize the need for this in the wake of the Brexit vote. It should not be forgotten that security and defense is the field in which Europeans have integrated the least over the past twenty-five years, despite loud-sounding commitments, so the road ahead will not be easy and other issues may come in the way. Nonetheless, in many ways this is a nudge that Europeans ought to want.

The risk is that Trump’s foreign policy priorities, other than nudging Europeans to get their act together on defense spending, will drive wedges in Europe’s precarious unity and willingness to move toward the “strategic autonomy” objective stated in the new EU Global Strategy.

Dangers

1. Brexit is the first danger zone. Mr. Trump has announced his willingness to negotiate a bilateral deal with Britain. This would be an exciting prospect for London, whose “hard Brexit” choice lacks a clear direction, but would be seen in Brussels as undermining its leverage in shaping the future EU-UK relationship. It could also trigger temptations in some quarters that a bilateral relationship with the United States gives more dividends than European integration. Europeans should make a concerted effort to demand an even-handed U.S. policy toward the continent; the incoming administration ought to treat individual European states with equanimity to prevent vicious circles of competition among them from taking hold. While the United States will legitimately cultivate its relations with individual European countries, it needs to make clear that its sees Europe as strong of united.
2. Mr. Trump’s win marks the beginning of the “far-right” curve in Europe. The next opportunity for people to express their disappointments with conventional politics is the Italian referendum on political reform scheduled for December 4. The current polls indicate the majority of “no votes”. If the referendum come in line with forecasts, Mateo Renzi will have to step down as Italian Prime Minister, opening up the possibility of new elections with the win of the radical Five Star Movement. In Austria, the polls indicate that Norbert Hofer, a front-runner of the right-wing populist Freedom party, has all chances to become the first far-right head of state in Western Europe since WWII. Next year, should provide even more opportunities for the popular pushback as there will be presidential and parliamentary elections in France, Germany, Netherlands. Mr Trump’s election boosted the confidence of candidates running on nationalistic, anti-foreigner, anti-elite and anti-globalization platforms. In Germany, Frauke Petry, the leader of the far-right populist Alternative für Deutschland views Mr. Trump’s victory as encouraging as it heralds the beginning of political sea-change in Europe. The Dutch far-right leader Geert Wilders, Islamophobic front-runner in the next parliamentary elections sees Mr. Trump’s win as inspirational for all right-wing party leaders. Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s far-right Front National says that Mr. Trump’s victory shows that it’s high time to put political and media elite in their place. National Front party with its anti-immigration stance is now a key electoral force in France and her own win in the upcoming election is probable. Any victory of a nationalist/leader/far-right party with their anti-immigrant rhetoric and protectionist approach to trade relationships could send some shockwaves across the trading desks.
3. Russia is the next red alert area. Mr. Trump has said enough about Russia to suggest discontinuity compared to the Obama administration. Europeans are in a difficult place: the first battleground of U.S.-Russian tensions is Europe-Ukraine; the second, Syria, causes the influx of refugees that Europe has to struggle to deal with. European states will need to make sure that Washington and Moscow do not strike deals with each other over their heads, Europe’s geographical centrality means that it would bear the consequences of that deal. Russia, and Syria are major dossiers in which U.S. dislocation may unravel the EU and cause the destabilization of Europe.
4. Other policy areas could lead to transatlantic divergence. Paradoxically, the likely death of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) on which so much energy has been invested, is the least preoccupying since it has been causing tension in many EU states as well. Where climate policies are concerned, if the US withdraws or start demanding renegotiations, it is a possibility that some other parties might want to renegotiate as well. This too will call Europeans for action. Revision of the Iran deal would also call Europeans for action.