WHAT A TRUMP VICTORY WOULD MEAN FOR EUROPE

Sir Michael Leigh, a Senior Fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States and a former European Commission Director-General recently wrote a piece on the ‘ Implications of a Trump presidency for Europe’. He says that Donald Trump’s election would have grave consequences for Europe, that a President Trump would disrupt transatlantic relations, that he distrusts allies, sees them as free-riders and questions the most basic NATO principle that an attack on one is an attack on all.

To be sure, hardly a day goes by without some senior European officials voicing grave concerns over the possibility that Trump might win the elections. European Parliament President Martin Schulz warned that Trump ‘would be a problem not just for the EU but for the whole world’. French President François Hollande, who faces his own challenges with right-wing populism said that Trump ‘makes you want to retch and German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, has called Trump a ‘hate preacher’.

And yet, in some quarters at least, the Trump cloud carries with it at least a sliver of silver lining. No European politician will say so publicly, but to some on the Continent, Trump presents a once-in-a-generation opportunity for emancipation from American influence.

To varying degrees, America-bashing has been a mainstay on both the Right and Left of European politics for decades and European politicians have rarely had difficulty finding reasons to rail against the U.S. In fact, the evils of U.S. influence is one of the few things that European politicians from nearly every slice of the political spectrum can agree upon. Even those who profess a deep commitment to the transatlantic relationship often can’t resist using the U.S. as rhetorical foil to deflect attention to their own vulnerabilities. Even Jean-Claude Juncker, hailing the Commission’s  crackdown on Apple’s Irish tax penalty declared in his State of the Union speech that ‘Europe is not the Wild West… we are not the United States of Europe.. We are much more diverse in Europe and stronger’.

Most Europeans at the center of Europe’s political spectrum genuinely fear the consequences of a Trump victory and a weakening of the Transatlantic relationship. But others smell an opportunity too good to be allowed to pass.

Here are five reasons some European politicians are secretly rooting for Trump.

1. The end of free trade: From the outset, European trade negotiators warned that anti-Americanism posed the biggest threat to a sweeping transatlantic trade deal. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, has been on life support for months. A Trump victory wouldn’t just douse any remaining hope for success, it would put a stake through the heart of the negotiations. Opponents of the deal see it as the Trojan Horse of trade, designed to give U.S. companies even more influence in Europe. Trump has argued the opposite that free-trade deals hurt American workers. The bottom line: a Trump victory would put a free-trade pact between the U.S. and Europe of any kind off the table.
2. The birth of an EU army: The U.S. has guaranteed Europe’s security for decades through NATO, effectively placing a giant security umbrella over most of the Continent. That reliance doesn’t sit well with everyone. Though Europe doesn’t have anywhere near the military resources of the U.S. (American military spending accounts for about 75 percent of the NATO total), politicians in France and Germany are eager to work on a European defense force. The idea isn’t new and faces myriad hurdles, mainly the question of how to finance it on a Europe’s shoestring budget. Nevertheless, a Trump victory would give the initiative a major boost. Trump would likely be happy to let the Europeans fend for themselves. If he wins, proponents of a European army would finally have the compelling argument they’ve been looking for.
3. Breaking up big brother surveillance: Europe’s most emotional gripe about American influence in recent years has revolved around mass surveillance. Europeans are convinced that nobody is safe from the NSA’s digital dragnet. But for all the transatlantic tensions around mass surveillance, Europe still cooperates with the U.S., mainly to get access to intelligence on Islamic terrorists. A Trump victory would be welcome news to those opposed to such cooperation.
4. Cracking down on Wall Street: The influence of Wall Street banks in Europe has long been a bee in the bonnet of Europe’s anti-American elites and populists alike. Justified or not, the bottom line is that Wall Street is considered a toxic force in Europe. Politicians on the Left have had Wall Street banks in their sights for some time. A Trump win would present a good opportunity for a crackdown.
5. Schadenfreude: The most powerful force driving Europe’s secret hopes for a Trump victory is simple schadenfreude. Most Europeans never bought the U.S.’s ‘city on a hill’ claims of exceptionalism.