ITALY'S FUTURE STANCE ON RUSSIA

Rome and Moscow have a relatively strong and deep-rooted partnership that is likely to stand the test of time. This peculiar partnership works on the basis that neither Russia nor Italy interferes in the domestic affairs of the other, and they recognise their respective spheres of influence. This means that Italy’s Russia policy does not fit well with the EU’s overall approach. It also helps to explain Rome’s reluctant support for EU sanctions against Russia.

The Italian political, economic, and cultural elite has always been well-disposed towards Russia. Russia’s supporters in Italian domestic politics range from the far right (Lega Nord) to the (Five Star Movement) to Berlusconi’s Forza Italia and other minor parliamentary factions. The ruling party is not overtly pro-Russia, but it is in favour of engagement with Russia on all key international dossiers, including energy and trade. Russia’s influence in Italy goes well beyond the political.The Italian national energy company ENI has been working with Moscow since the Cold War era. Russian public diplomacy and media outlets assiduously cultivate the most influential Italian opinion-makers.

Italy has been openly sceptical of the EU’s sanctions on Russia, saying that what is needed is a political discussion, not just a mechanical extension of the sanctions every six months. It is unlikely to break ranks any time soon, in spite of economic losses, but this scepticism will only grow as time passes. We are already seeing the effects. For example, the local assembly of the Veneto region recently became the first to pass a resolution against sanctions on Russia and in support of Crimean “self-determination”, saying that Russian counter-sanctions are badly damaging the Venetian economy. This vote is not legally binding, but it is not unimaginable that other regions could stage their own votes on the issue, putting more pressure on the government.

It is clear that Rome will continue promoting détente with Russia until 2030 and beyond. Italy’s economic relations with Russia are primarily driven through oil imports. Due to relatively warm winters and falling demand from power plants, Italian gas consumption dropped by one fifth between 2011 and 2014 (76 to 60 billion cubic metres). It will take years to recover to pre-financial-crisis levels. The Italian gas market is heavily dependent on imports. Today Russia is Italy’s biggest supplier of natural gas (35 percent). Italy and Russia will likely remain interdependent in the years up to 2030 and beyond.

Rome is stuck in a sensitive geopolitical position between Washington and Moscow. As a peripheral EU State, Italy feels abandoned by northern EU Member States and overwhelmed by the refugee crisis in the Mediterranean Sea. When it comes to relations with Russia, all Italy wants is to go back to its marriage of convenience as soon as it can and, if possible, before 2030.