THE NEW MINSK AGREEMENT

The new Minsk agreement calls for

  1. A ceasefire between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists starting Sunday 15 February 2015 at 00.00am;
  2. Heavy weapons on both sides are to be withdrawn by up to 140 km from the front lines depending on the range and calibre of the weapons. The withdrawals will take place in a two week period starting from 17 February 2015. The cease fire and weapons pullback is to be monitored by by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE);
  3. Amnesty for prisoners involved in fighting;
  4. Withdrawal of all foreign militias from Ukrainian territory and the disarmament of all illegal groups;
  5. Lifting of restrictions in rebel areas of Ukraine;
  6. Decentralisation for rebel regions by end of 2015. The more ambitious political aspect of the agreement stipulate that Kiev is to draft a new constitution by the end of the year, with a 'key element' entailing decentralisation and special status for breakaway regions. An eight-point annex to the accord lists elements of the special status, including local control of police, court, and judicial systems and a regime of cross-border cooperation between the eastern regions and Russia;  
  7. Ukraine will also get control of its border with Russia, but in consultation with the rebels and only after the regions gain more autonomy under constitutional reform by the end of 2015. The agreement states that Ukraine will start to exercise control of the border once new local elections are held in the east, but will only finalise its border control once the new constitution and the special status regime are in force and 'in consultation and in agreement with 'the separatists'. 
  • The participants also agreed to attend regular meetings to ensure the fulfilment of the agreements;
  • The French and the Germans agreed that Russia would be party to negotiations over the detail and impact of Ukraine's free trade pact with the EU, a number of conditions were attached to the special rights to be granted to the pro-Russia territories, central government funding of social and welfare benefits was to be restored to the pro-Russia areas and Germany and France promised to facilitate the financial transfers and repair the broken financial system. 
  • The French and the Germans agreed to trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine and the EU on energy issues and Russian gas supplies.

There are certain to be sharp disputes on these arrangements in the months ahead. Poroshenko has declared that Ukraine will 'always be a unitary state' and will never be 'federalised'. A separate document signed by the three Presidents committed Putin to respecting Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, although clearly last year's Russian annexation of Ukraine's Crimea peninsula will be ignored here.

In the meantime the International Monetary Fund  announced $ 17.5 billion in assistance to Ukraine to stave off financial collapse. The World Bank will also provide Ukraine with up to $ 2 billion in support in 2015, with assistance focused on aiding the poor, supporting reforms and fighting corruption. The World Bank's financing will be part of a package from the international community. 

 

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